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The effects of global excess liquidity on emerging stock market returns: Evidence from a panel threshold model

Author

Listed:
  • Sophie Brana

    (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - UB - Université de Bordeaux)

  • Stephanie Prat

    (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - UB - Université de Bordeaux)

Abstract

The expansion of global liquidity, exacerbated by the unconventional monetary policies implemented by the major central banks over the past several years, has contributed to the debate on the cross-border impact of those measures. This paper examines the impact of global excess liquidity on asset prices for a set of seventeen emerging market countries taking into account nonlinearity by using a panel threshold model. We find that in a period of global investors' high risk appetites, global excess liquidity is a positive determinant of asset prices in emerging market countries. However, the link between the two variables changes when global risk aversion strengthens.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophie Brana & Stephanie Prat, 2016. "The effects of global excess liquidity on emerging stock market returns: Evidence from a panel threshold model," Post-Print hal-03894886, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03894886
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.06.026
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ashima Goyal & Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2022. "External shocks, cross-border flows and macroeconomic risks in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2111-2148, May.
    3. Elisabetta D¡¯Apolito & Vincenzo Pacelli, 2017. "What Influences Bank Stock Prices in Times of Crisis? An International Survey," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(6), pages 1-14, June.
    4. Yajie Liu & Feng Dong, 2020. "Corruption, Economic Development and Haze Pollution: Evidence from 139 Global Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-22, April.
    5. Stephanos Papadamou & Nikolaos A. Kyriazis & Panayiotis G. Tzeremes, 2019. "Spillover Effects of US QE and QE Tapering on African and Middle Eastern Stock Indices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, April.
    6. Brana, Sophie & Campmas, Alexandra & Lapteacru, Ion, 2019. "(Un)Conventional monetary policy and bank risk-taking: A nonlinear relationship," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 576-593.
    7. Radeef Chundakkadan & Subash Sasidharan, 2021. "Central bank's money market operations and daily stock returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 136-152, January.
    8. D'Avino, Carmela, 2018. "Quantitative easing, global banks and the international bank lending channel," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 234-246.
    9. Canh P. Nguyen & Christophe Schinckus & Thanh D. Su & Felicia H. L. Chong, 2022. "Determinants of stock market returns in emerging markets: The linkage between institutional quality and macro liquidity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4472-4486, October.
    10. Akdi, Yilmaz & Varlik, Serdar & Berument, M. Hakan, 2020. "Duration of Global Financial Cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    11. Dahmene, Meriam & Boughrara, Adel & Slim, Skander, 2021. "Nonlinearity in stock returns: Do risk aversion, investor sentiment and, monetary policy shocks matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 676-699.
    12. Uddin, Md. Kamal & Pan, Xiongfeng & Saima, Umme & Zhang, Chengming, 2022. "Influence of financial development on energy intensity subject to technological innovation: Evidence from panel threshold regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    13. Horvath, Jaroslav & Zhong, Jiansheng, 2019. "Unemployment dynamics in emerging countries: Monetary policy and external shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 31-49.
    14. repec:erh:journl:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Stephanos Papadamou & Νikolaos A. Kyriazis & Panayiotis G. Tzeremes, 2020. "US non-linear causal effects on global equity indices in Normal times versus unconventional eras," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 381-407, May.
    16. Wang, Delu & Wang, Yadong & Jiang, Wuding & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "Has outward foreign direct investment alleviated industrial overcapacity in China? An empirical test of the upstream and downstream industrial links," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 250-263.
    17. Liu, Qiming & Liu, Zhenya & Moussa, Faten & Mu, Yuhao, 2024. "International capital flow in a period of high inflation: The case of China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).

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