Commodity Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises
Commodity prices are important both as a source of shocks and for the propagation of shocks originating elsewhere in the economy. Many vector autoregression (VAR) studies estimate a gradual response of commodity prices to monetary policy shocks. Exploiting information in high-frequency financial market data, and using the methods of Rigobon and Sack (2004) I find that a 10 basis point surprise change in interest rates causes commodity prices to fall immediately by about 0.5%. This is about two-thirds of the estimated response of the S&P500, and about five times larger than the response in a VAR 12 months after the shock. Metals prices tend to respond more than agricultural commodities. The point estimate for oil prices is similar to other commodities, but is estimated imprecisely.
|Date of creation:||14 Apr 2010|
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- Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004.
"The impact of monetary policy on asset prices,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
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6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
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