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Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Turkey: A Structural VAR Approach

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  • Mustafa Kilinc
  • Cengiz Tunc

Abstract

This paper tries to identify the monetary policy shocks in Turkey during the explicit inflation targeting period starting from 2006 using a structural VAR approach. We model Turkey as a small open economy where domestic variables are affected by external factors like commodity prices and global demand but domestic variables do not affect external variables. We analyze the effects of four shocks on Turkish economy: two domestic shocks of interest rates and risk premium, and two external shocks of commodity prices and global demand. All shocks are found to have significant effects on main economic variables. Positive interest rate shocks appreciate the domestic currency and decrease the inflation whereas positive risk premium shocks cause a depreciation and an increase in inflation. Both of these shocks also cause a decrease in the domestic activity. Being an open and internationally integrated economy, Turkey is significantly affected by global shocks. A positive global demand innovation leads to an increase in global commodity prices, which together increase both the level of prices and economic activity in Turkey. Positive commodity price shocks also increase the inflation in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Kilinc & Cengiz Tunc, 2014. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Turkey: A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 1423, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1423
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    Cited by:

    1. Varlik Serdar & Berument M. Hakan, 2016. "Credit channel and capital flows: a macroprudential policy tool? Evidence from Turkey," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 145-170, January.
    2. Yasin Kursat Onder & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The Effects of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 159-199, January.
    3. Kilinc, Mustafa & Tunc, Cengiz, 2019. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on economic activity in Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 505-528.
    4. Cengiz TUNC & Mustafa Kilinc, 2018. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through In A Small Open Economy: A Structural Var Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 410-422, October.
    5. K. Azim Ozdemir, 2015. "Interest Rate Surprises and Transmission Mechanism in Turkey: Evidence from Impulse Response Analysis," Working Papers 1504, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Mustafa Kılınç & Cengiz Tunç & Mehmet Yörükoğlu, 2016. "Twin stability problem: joint issue of high current account deficit and high inflation," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 361-371, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Alessandro Barattieri & Matteo Cacciatore & Fabio Ghironi, 2018. "Protectionism and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 24353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kilinc, Mustafa & Tunc, Cengiz, 2019. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on economic activity in Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 505-528.
    9. Civcir, İrfan & Ertac Varoglu, Dizem, 2019. "International transmission of monetary and global commodity price shocks to Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 647-665.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Interest Rates; Risk Premium; Small Open Economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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