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International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission between Turkey and the European Union


  • Selin Sayek

    () (International Monetary Fund)

  • David D. Selover

    () (Department of Economics, Old Dominion University)


This study investigates the economic interdependence between Turkey and the European Union (EU). The main questions addressed are (i) Do Turkish and European business cycles move together? and (ii) Are European business cycles transmitted to Turkey? This investigation is important as Turkey seeks to become a full member of the EU. Trade flows, graphs, correlations, and a principal-components analysis are used to identify possible macroeconomic interdependence and transmissions. A structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model is estimated to determine the effects of European economic fluctuations on the Turkish economy. The SVAR includes GDP, consumer prices, money supplies, interest rates, and the exchange rate for Turkey and Germany. The investigation finds that Turkey's economy is only modestly influenced by European business cycles and is largely determined by domestic economic and political developments and various regional conflicts. The findings of this study have implications for Turkey's increasing economic integration into the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Selin Sayek & David D. Selover, 2002. "International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission between Turkey and the European Union," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 206-238, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:69:2:y:2002:p:206-238

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ondřej Glazar & Wadim Strielkowski, 2010. "Turkey and the European Union: Possible Incidence of the EU Accession on Migration Flows," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(3), pages 218-235.
    2. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December.
    3. repec:eee:anture:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Saygılı, Hülya & Saygılı, Mesut, 2011. "Structural changes in exports of an emerging economy: Case of Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 342-360.
    5. Graff Michael, 2006. "Internationale Konjunkturverbunde / International Business Cycles," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(4), pages 385-417, August.
    6. Ahmet Can Ýnci, 2007. "Currency and yield Co-integration between a developed and an emerging Country: The Case of Turkey," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 21(1+2), pages 1-20.
    7. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
    8. P. Fulya Gebeşoğlu & Hasan Murat Ertuğrul, 2014. "GDP Volatility Spillovers from the US and EU to Turkey: A Dynamic Investigation," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 51-66, May.

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