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What explains international interest rate co-movement?

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  • Camehl, Annika
  • von Schweinitz, Gregor

Abstract

The international co-movement of interest rates reflects correlated business-cycle fluctuations, largely driven by demand shocks. Monetary policy in advanced economies follows domestic mandates – inflation and the output gap – and does not respond to foreign policy shocks. We derive this result from a Bayesian structural panel vector autoregression with informative priors, homogeneity restrictions on contemporaneous relations, a hierarchical Minnesota prior with cross-sectional shrinkage, and a factor structure for structural shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Camehl, Annika & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2026. "What explains international interest rate co-movement?," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:32023
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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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