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A tale of two global monetary policies

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  • Agrippino, Silvia Miranda

    (Bank of England)

  • Nenova, Tsvetelina

    (London Business School)

Abstract

We compare the macroeconomic and financial spillovers of the unconventional monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB. Monetary policy tightenings in the two areas are followed by a contraction in global activity and trade, a retrenchment in global capital flows, a fall in global stock markets, and a rise in risk aversion. Bilateral spillovers are also powerful. Fed and ECB monetary policies propagate internationally through the same channels – trade and risk-taking – but the magnitude of ECB spillovers is smaller. We postulate that the relative importance of the euro and the US dollar in the international financial system can help to explain such asymmetries, and produce tentative evidence that links the strength of the ECB spillovers to € exposure in trade invoicing and the pricing of financial transactions.

Suggested Citation

  • Agrippino, Silvia Miranda & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2022. "A tale of two global monetary policies," Bank of England working papers 972, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0972
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    1. Beck, Roland & Berganza, Juan Carlos & Brüggemann, Axel & Cezar, Rafael & Eijking, Carlijn & Eller, Markus & Fuentes, Alberto & Alves, Joel Graça & Kreitz, Lilian & Marsilli, Clement & Moder, Isabella, 2023. "Recent advances in the literature on capital flow management," Occasional Paper Series 317, European Central Bank.
    2. De Santis, Roberto A. & Zimic, Srečko, 2022. "Interest rates and foreign spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Sinem Kandemir & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Not all ECB meetings are created equal," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202312, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Christoph E. Boehm & T. Niklas Kroner, 2020. "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle," Working Papers 677, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    5. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Ciminelli, Gabriele & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2022. "The effects of U.S. monetary policy on international mutual fund investment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Camehl, Annika & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "What explains international interest rate co-movement?," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2023.
    8. Yang, Yang & Tang, Yanling & Cheng, Kai, 2023. "Spillback effects of US unconventional monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    9. Corneli, Flavia & Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2023. "Macroeconomic news, the financial cycle and the commodity cycle: The Chinese footprint," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    10. Jarociński, Marek, 2022. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Santiago Camara, 2023. "International Spillovers of ECB Interest Rates Monetary Policy & Information Effects," Working Papers 250, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    12. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Xu, Nancy R., 2023. "Risk, monetary policy and asset prices in a global world," Working Paper Series 2879, European Central Bank.
    13. Braun, Robin & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Saha, Tuli, 2023. "Measuring monetary policy in the UK: the UK Monetary Policy Event‑Study Database," Bank of England working papers 1050, Bank of England.
    14. Roccazzella, Francesco & Candelon, Bertrand, 2022. "Should we care about ECB inflation expectations?," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    15. Nicolas Groshenny & Naveed Javed, 2023. "Dornbusch’s overshooting and the systematic component of monetary policy in SOE-SVARs," TEPP Working Paper 2023-08, TEPP.
    16. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2023. "A global monetary policy factor in sovereign bond yields," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 445-465.
    17. Lu, Dong & Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi, 2023. "China's monetary policy surprises and corporate real investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. Axelsson, Birger & Song, Han-Suck, 2023. "The effect of quantitative easing and quantitative tightening on U.S. equity REIT returns," Working Paper Series 23/9, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance, revised 14 Nov 2023.
    19. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unconventional monetary policy; high-frequency identification; international spillovers; Fed; ECB;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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