IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/0693.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial shocks, credit spreads and the international credit channel

Author

Listed:
  • Cesa Bianchi, Ambrogio

    (Bank of England)

  • Sokol, Andrej

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Recent empirical evidence on the cross-country synchronization of credit spreads in response to US monetary policy shocks has led to the notion of an ‘international credit channel’ of US monetary policy. This paper provides novel evidence on the existence of an international credit channel for the transmission of US financial shocks across borders, and compares their impact to US monetary policy shocks. We identify monetary policy and financial shocks by combining the external instruments approach with sign restrictions in a two-country SVAR for the United States and the United Kingdom. Adverse US financial shocks trigger a sharp and persistent contraction in the US economy, and an increase in US credit spreads. Crucially, this tightening in US credit conditions is quickly transmitted internationally, leading to an increase in credit spreads and a slowdown in economic activity in the United Kingdom. Unlike financial shocks, monetary policy shocks do not seem to induce as much international co-movement. Our results are in line with general equilibrium open economy models with credit market imperfections and a high degree of financial integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Cesa Bianchi, Ambrogio & Sokol, Andrej, 2017. "Financial shocks, credit spreads and the international credit channel," Bank of England working papers 693, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0693
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2017/financial-shocks-credit-spreads-and-the-international-credit-channel.pdf?la=en&hash=1AA967B1438F276A89D4A1189E24EB1AAA00DE81
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovanni Ricco & Riccardo Degasperi & Seokki S. Hong, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Working Papers 814, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    2. Simon Gilchrist & Raphael Schoenle & Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajšek, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics during the Financial Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 785-823, March.
    3. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    5. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    6. Dedola, Luca & Rivolta, Giulia & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 23-41.
    7. Evgenia Passari & Hélène Rey, 2015. "Financial Flows and the International Monetary System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 675-698, May.
    8. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
    9. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    10. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 295-330, March.
    11. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
    12. Pinter, Gabor & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Yates, Tony, 2013. "Risk news shocks and the business cycle," Bank of England working papers 483, Bank of England.
    13. Georgios Georgiadis & Arnaud Mehl, 2015. "Trilemma, not dilemma: financial globalisation and Monetary policy effectiveness," Globalization Institute Working Papers 222, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
    15. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
    16. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, 2019. "US Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 14053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    18. Francesco Furlanetto & Francesco Ravazzolo & Samad Sarferaz, 2019. "Identification of Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 311-337.
    19. Gareth Anderson & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2020. "Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity," Discussion Papers 2005, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    20. Baskaya, Yusuf Soner & di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, Şebnem & Peydro, José-Luis & Ulu, Mehmet Fatih, 2017. "Capital flows and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 15-22.
    21. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    22. Hélène Rey, 2016. "International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 6-35, May.
    23. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
    24. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    25. Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2010. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    26. Nuno Coimbra & Hélène Rey, 2017. "Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries," NBER Working Papers 23245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Caldara, Dario & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Gilchrist, Simon & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2016. "The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 185-207.
    28. Fabio Fornari & Livio Stracca, 2012. "What does a financial shock do? First international evidence [Financial intermediaries, financial stability and monetary policy]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(71), pages 407-445.
    29. Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Signalling Effects of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(2), pages 853-884.
    30. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    31. Fostel, Ana & Geanakoplos, John, 2012. "Why does bad news increase volatility and decrease leverage?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 501-525.
    32. Elena Gerko & Hélène Rey, 2017. "Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 721-745.
    33. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 573-601, June.
    34. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    35. Gennaioli, Nicola & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2012. "Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 452-468.
    36. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    37. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    38. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14524 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599, Elsevier.
    40. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
    41. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 600-605, May.
    42. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:27:y:2012:i:71:p:407-445 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Musso, Alberto & Neri, Stefano & Stracca, Livio, 2011. "Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3019-3041, November.
    44. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    45. Stavrakeva, Vania & Tang, Jenny, 2019. "The Dollar During the Great Recession: US Monetary Policy Signaling and The Flight To Safety," CEPR Discussion Papers 14034, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2020. "The Global Financial Cycle after Lehman," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 523-528, May.
    47. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    48. Meeks, Roland, 2012. "Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations? Evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 568-584.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simon Lloyd & Ed Manuel & Konstantin Panchev, 2024. "Foreign Vulnerabilities, Domestic Risks: The Global Drivers of GDP-at-Risk," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 335-392, March.
    2. Federico Di Pace & Christoph Görtz, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Sectoral Comovement and the Credit Channel," CESifo Working Paper Series 9142, CESifo.
    3. Jongrim Ha & Inhwan So, 2023. "Which Monetary Shocks Matter in Small Open Economies? Evidence from Canada," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 389-472, June.
    4. Salzmann, Leonard, 2024. "Do Survey Data Help Identify Supply and Demand Shocks in Sign-restricted SVARs?," EconStor Preprints 289576, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Degasperi,Riccardo & Hong, Seokki Simon & Ricco, Giovanni, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1257, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    6. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2022. "A tale of two global monetary policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2019. "The global capital flows cycle: structural drivers and transmission channels," Working Paper Series 2280, European Central Bank.
    8. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The fundamentals of safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    9. Jongrim Ha & Seohyun Lee & Inhwan So, 2022. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Evidence from Geopolitical Swings on the Korean Peninsula," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 21-56, February.
    10. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Timothy P. Jackson & Luiz Pereira da Silva, 2020. "Cross-Border Regulatory Spillovers and Macroprudential Policy Coordination," Working Papers 202028, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    11. Marco Bernardini & Antonio M. Conti, 2023. "Announcement and implementation effects of central bank asset purchases," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Flights-to-safety and macroeconomic adjustment in emerging markets: The role of U.S. monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Di Pace, Federico & Görtz, Christoph, 2021. "Sectoral comovement, monetary policy and the credit channel," Bank of England working papers 925, Bank of England.
    14. Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2020. "Global financial markets and oil price shocks in real time," Working Paper Series 2472, European Central Bank.
    15. Carsten Jentsch & Kurt G. Lunsford, 2022. "Asymptotically Valid Bootstrap Inference for Proxy SVARs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 1876-1891, October.
    16. Helmut Herwartz & Christian Ochsner & Hannes Rohloff, 2021. "Global Credit Shocks and Real Economies," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202116, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    17. Jarociński, Marek, 2022. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    18. Robin Braun & Ralf Brüggemann, 2020. "Identification of SVAR Models by Combining Sign Restrictions With External Instruments," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2020-01, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    19. Herwartz, Helmut & Ochsner, Christian & Rohloff, Hannes, 2020. "The credit composition of global liquidity," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 409, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    20. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Andrea Ferrero, 2021. "The Transmission of Keynesian Supply Shocks," Discussion Papers 2116, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    21. Carrillo, Julio A. & Elizondo, Rocio & Hernández-Román, Luis G., 2020. "Inquiry on the transmission of U.S. aggregate shocks to Mexico: A SVAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    22. Robin Braun & Ralf Brüggemann, 2017. "Identification of SVAR Models by Combining Sign Restrictions With External Instruments," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-07, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    23. Domit, Sílvia & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy with a medium-scale Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1669-1678.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrej Sokol & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2017. "The International Credit Channel of U.S. Monetary Policy and Financial Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 724, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Francesco Furlanetto & Francesco Ravazzolo & Samad Sarferaz, 2019. "Identification of Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 311-337.
    3. Abbate, Angela & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2016. "Financial shocks and inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 41/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    5. Jarociński, Marek, 2022. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Giovanni Ricco & Riccardo Degasperi & Seokki S. Hong, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Working Papers 814, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    7. Santiago Camara, 2021. "Spillovers of US Interest Rates: Monetary Policy & Information Effects," Papers 2111.08631, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    8. Brianti, Marco, 2021. "Financial Shocks, Uncertainty Shocks, and Monetary Policy Trade-Offs," Working Papers 2021-5, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    9. Carrillo, Julio A. & Elizondo, Rocio & Hernández-Román, Luis G., 2020. "Inquiry on the transmission of U.S. aggregate shocks to Mexico: A SVAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    10. William Gatt & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "The spillover of euro area shocks to the Maltese economy," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    11. Sangyup Choi, 2018. "Bank Lending Standards, Loan Demand, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from the Emerging Market Bank Loan Officer Survey," Working papers 2018rwp-126, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    12. Walentin, Karl, 2014. "Business cycle implications of mortgage spreads," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 62-77.
    13. Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Monetary policy announcements and bank lending: Do banks’ refinancing markets matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Balke, Nathan S. & Zeng, Zheng & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Identifying credit demand, financial intermediation, and supply of funds shocks: A structural VAR approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    15. Pinchetti, Marco & Szczepaniak, Andrzej, 2021. "Global spillovers of the Fed information effect," Bank of England working papers 952, Bank of England.
    16. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Delrio, Silvia & Kima, Richard, 2021. "Financial uncertainty and real activity: The good, the bad, and the ugly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    17. Chen, Zhengyang, 2019. "The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission," EconStor Preprints 204579, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    18. Albrizio, Silvia & Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Yoon, Chansik, 2020. "International bank lending channel of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    19. Elena Gerko & Hélène Rey, 2017. "Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 721-745.
    20. Metiu, Norbert & Hilberg, Björn & Grill, Michael, 2016. "Credit constraints and the international propagation of US financial shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 67-80.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    SVAR; credit channel; international transmission; external instruments; sign restrictions; financial shocks; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0693. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Media Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.