IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/14513.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Refet S. Gürkaynak
  • A. Hakan Kara
  • Burçin Kısacıkoğlu
  • Sang Seok Lee

Abstract

Central banks unexpectedly tightening policy rates often observe the exchange value of their currency depreciate, rather than appreciate as predicted by standard models. We document this for Fed and ECB policy days using eventstudies and ask whether an information effect, where the public attributes the policy surprise to an unobserved state of the economy that the central bank is signaling by its policy may explain the abnormality. It turns out that many informational assumptions make a standard two- country New Keynesian model match this behavior. To identify the particular mechanism, we condition on multiple asset prices in the eventstudy and model implications for these. We find that there is heterogeneity in this dimension in the eventstudy and no model with a single regime can match the evidence. Further, even after conditioning on possible information effects driving longer term interest rates, there appear to be other drivers of exchange rates. Our results show that existing models have a long way to go in reconciling eventstudy analysis with model-based mechanisms of asset pricing.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Refet S. Gürkaynak & A. Hakan Kara & Burçin Kısacıkoğlu & Sang Seok Lee, 2020. "Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14513
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1999. "Is Bank Supervision Central to Central Banking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 629-653.
    2. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating asset-market effects of unconventional monetary policy: a multi-country review [Uncertainty of interest rate path as a monetary policy instrument]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 749-799.
    3. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    4. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2020. "The Fed's Response to Economic News Explains the "Fed Information Effect"," CESifo Working Paper Series 8151, CESifo.
    5. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    6. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    7. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
    8. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    9. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2018. "Exchange Rates and Uncovered Interest Differentials: The Role of Permanent Monetary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 25380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Vania Stavrakeva & Jenny Tang, 2018. "The dollar during the global recession: US monetary policy and the exorbitant duty," Working Papers 18-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    12. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    13. Cieslak, Anna & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2019. "Non-monetary news in central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-315.
    14. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 48-65, September.
    15. Kurt G. Lunsford, 2020. "Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2899-2934, September.
    16. Jordi Galí, 2020. "Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Guidance and the Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 465-496, December.
    17. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2021. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 74-107, July.
    18. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    19. J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    20. Jordi Galí, 2017. "Uncovered interest parity, forward guidance and the exchange rate," Economics Working Papers 1600, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2020.
    21. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Indicator variables for optimal policy under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 661-690, January.
    22. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 691-720, April.
    23. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    24. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "An Alternative Explanation for the "Fed Information Effect"," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(3), pages 664-700, March.
    25. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    26. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    27. Kerssenfischer, Mark, 2019. "Information effects of euro area monetary policy: New evidence from high-frequency futures data," Discussion Papers 07/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    28. Marek Jarocinski & Peter Karadi, 2017. "Central Bank Information Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1193, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    29. Richard H. Clarida, 2009. "Reflections on Monetary Policy in the Open Economy," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 121-141.
    30. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2011. "Evolving Perceptions of Central Bank Credibility: The European Central Bank Experience," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 153-182.
    31. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:80:p:749-799 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Richard H. Clarida & Daniel Waldman, 2008. "Is Bad News about Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate? And, If So, Can That Tell Us Anything about the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 371-396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September.
    34. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    35. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 1-80.
    36. Pearlman, Joseph & Currie, David & Levine, Paul, 1986. "Rational expectations models with partial information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 90-105, April.
    37. Richard H. Clarida, 2009. "Reflections on Monetary Policy in the Open Economy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, pages 121-141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Tore Ellingsen & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1594-1607, December.
    39. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
    40. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
    41. Lee, Sang Seok, 2020. "Information Value Of The Interest Rate And The Zero Lower Bound," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(7), pages 1758-1784, October.
    42. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2022. "Exchange rate and inflation under weak monetary policy: Turkey verifies theory," CFS Working Paper Series 679, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2022. "A tale of two global monetary policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Kerstin Bernoth & Helmut Herwartz & Lasse Trienens, 2023. "The Impacts of Global Risk and US Monetary Policy on US Dollar Exchange Rates and Excess Currency Returns," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2037, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Denis Gorea & Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Marianna Kudlyak, 2022. "House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data," Working Paper Series 2022-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Santiago Camara, 2021. "Spillovers of US Interest Rates: Monetary Policy & Information Effects," Papers 2111.08631, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    6. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel, 2023. "Soft or strong: the art of monetary tightening," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03954545, HAL.
    7. Refet Gürkaynak & Hati̇ce Gökçe Karasoy‐Can & Sang Seok Lee, 2022. "Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2375-2421, August.
    8. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2023. "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-19.
    9. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Rogowicz, Karol & Kurowski, Łukasz & Smaga, Paweł, 2021. "Two decades of contagion effect on stock markets: Which events are more contagious?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    10. Hiroyuki Kubota & Mototsugu Shintani, 2020. "High-frequency Identification of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-502, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    11. Jarociński, Marek, 2022. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Oliver Holtemöller & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Boreum Kwak, 2020. "Exchange Rates and the Information Channel of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1906, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Oliver Holtemöller & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Boreum Kwak, 2024. "Is There an Information Channel of Monetary Policy?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2084, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Christopher S. Sutherland, 2023. "Forward guidance and expectation formation: A narrative approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 222-241, March.
    15. Boragan Aruoba & Andrés Fernández & Daniel Guzmán & Ernesto Pastén & Felipe Saffie, 2021. "Monetary Policy Surprises in Chile: Measurement & Real Effects," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 921, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Julien Pinter & Evzen Kocenda, 2021. "Media Treatment of Monetary Policy Surprises and Their Impact on Firms' and Consumers' Expectations," Working Papers IES 2021/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2021.
    18. Santiago Camara, 2021. "US Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: Information effects & Financial Flows," Papers 2108.01026, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    19. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Carlos Cantú & Paolo Cavallino & Nikola Mirkov, 2021. "Fiscal regimes and the exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 950, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    21. Xu Zhang, 2021. "A New Measure of Monetary Policy Shocks," Staff Working Papers 21-29, Bank of Canada.
    22. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Stefano Ugolini, 2023. "Fiscal Dominance, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates: Lessons from Early-Modern Venice," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23205, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    2. Jarociński, Marek, 2022. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    4. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    5. Breitenlechner, Max & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    7. Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Jenny Tang, 2022. "Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks," Working Papers 2213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Thwaites, Gregory & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission in the United Kingdom: A high frequency identification approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    9. van der Zwan, Terri & Kole, Erik & van der Wel, Michel, 2024. "Heterogeneous macro and financial effects of ECB asset purchase programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    10. Fanelli, Luca & Marsi, Antonio, 2022. "Sovereign spreads and unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area: A tale of three shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Bu, Chunya & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "A unified measure of Fed monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-349.
    12. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2019. "Federal reserve private information and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 34-49.
    13. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    15. Jung, Alexander, 2023. "Are monetary policy shocks causal to bank health? Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Cieslak, Anna & Pang, Hao, 2021. "Common shocks in stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 880-904.
    17. Kerssenfischer, Mark, 2019. "Information Effects of Euro Area Monetary Policy: New evidence from high-frequency futures data," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203524, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Mody, Ashoka & Nedeljkovic, Milan, 2024. "Central bank policies and financial markets: Lessons from the euro crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    19. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.
    20. Kerssenfischer, Mark, 2022. "Information effects of euro area monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14513. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.