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If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?

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  • Dedola, Luca
  • Rivolta, Giulia
  • Stracca, Livio

Abstract

This paper studies the international spillovers of US monetary policy shocks on a number of macroeconomic and financial variables in 36 advanced and emerging economies. In most countries, a surprise US monetary tightening leads to depreciation against the dollar; industrial production and real GDP fall, unemployment rises. Inflation declines especially in advanced economies. At the same time, there is significant heterogeneity across countries in the response of asset prices, and portfolio and banking cross-border flows. However, no clear-cut systematic relation emerges between country responses and likely relevant country characteristics, such as their income level, dollar exchange rate flexibility, financial openness, trade openness vs. the US, dollar exposure in foreign assets and liabilities, and incidence of commodity exports. JEL Classification: F3, F4

Suggested Citation

  • Dedola, Luca & Rivolta, Giulia & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?," Working Paper Series 2050, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172050
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kristina Bluwstein & Fabio Canova, 2016. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbor? The International Effects of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 69-120, September.
    2. Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin, 2016. "The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes," Staff Working Papers 16-9, Bank of Canada.
    3. Banerjee, Ryan & Devereux, Michael B. & Lombardo, Giovanni, 2016. "Self-oriented monetary policy, global financial markets and excess volatility of international capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 275-297.
    4. Potjagailo, Galina, 2017. "Spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy across Europe: A factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 127-147.
    5. IRC Task Force on IMF issues & Broos, Menno & Ghalanos, Michalis & Kennedy, Bernard & Landbeck, Alexander & Lerner, Christina & Menezes, Paula & Schiavone, Alessandro & Tilley, Thomas & Viani, Frances, 2016. "Dealing with large and volatile capital flows and the role of the IMF," Occasional Paper Series 180, European Central Bank.
    6. Max Hanisch, 2017. "US Monetary Policy and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1701, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Adrian Alter & Selim Elekdag, 2016. "Emerging Market Corporate Leverage and Global Financial Conditions," IMF Working Papers 16/243, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Carlos Caceres & Yan Carriere-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy," IMF Working Papers 16/108, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Andrej Sokol & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2017. "The International Credit Channel of U.S. Monetary Policy and Financial Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 724, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Annette Meinusch, 2017. "When the Fed sneezes - Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy to Emerging Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201730, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2016. "Monetary News, U.S. Interest Rate and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies," Economics Working Papers ECO2016/10, European University Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital mobility; exchange rate regime; identification of monetary shocks; international transmission; trilemma;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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