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The Puzzling Change in the International Transmission of US Macroeconomic Policy Shocks

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020

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  • Ethan Ilzetzki
  • Keyu Jin

Abstract

We demonstrate a dramatic change over time in the international transmission of US monetary policy shocks. International spillovers from US interest rate policy have had a different nature since the 1990s than they did in post-Bretton Woods period. Our analysis is based on a panel of 21 high income and emerging market economies. Prior to the 1990s, the US dollar appreciated, and ex-US industrial production declined, in response to increases in the US Federal Funds Rate, as predicted by textbook open economy models. The past decades have seen a shift, whereby increases in US interest rates depreciate the US dollar but stimulate the rest of the world economy. Results are robust to several identification methods. We sketch a simple theory of exchange rate determination in face of interest-elastic risk aversion that rationalizes these findings.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ethan Ilzetzki & Keyu Jin, 2020. "The Puzzling Change in the International Transmission of US Macroeconomic Policy Shocks," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14515
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    2. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2016. "International Coordination," NBER Working Papers 21878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Janet L. Yellen, 2016. "Macroeconomic Research After the Crisis : a speech at \"The Elusive 'Great' Recovery: Causes and Implications for Future Business Cycle Dynamics\" 60th annual economic conference sponsored b," Speech 915, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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