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Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models

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  • Gary Koop

    () (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, United Kingdom; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

  • Dimitris Korobilis

    (Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

Abstract

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2014. "Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Paper series 39_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:39_14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary M. Koop, 2013. "Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARS," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 177-203, March.
    2. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: safe haven, credit rating agencies and the spread of the fever from Greece, Ireland and Portugal," Working Paper Series 1419, European Central Bank.
    3. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, March.
    5. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "Estimating Multicountry Var Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 929-959, August.
    6. Stefano Neri, 2014. "The Impact of the Sovereign Debt Crisis on Bank Lending Rates in the Euro Area," Rivista Bancaria - Minerva Bancaria, Istituto di Cultura Bancaria Francesco Parrillo, issue 5-6, September.
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    8. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    9. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2013. "Panel Vector Autoregressive Models: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 9380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    12. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Momferatou, Daphne & Onorante, Luca, 2014. "Short-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 635-644.
    13. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    14. Carriero, A. & Kapetanios, G. & Marcellino, M., 2009. "Forecasting exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 400-417.
    15. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
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    20. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:wly:japmet:v:31:y:2016:i:7:p:1371-1391 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2015. "Forecasting With High Dimensional Panel VARs," Working Papers 2015_25, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. Michelle, Gilmartin, 2016. "A note on the identification and transmission of energy demand and supply shocks," MPRA Paper 76186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite Likelihood Methods for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series 44, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Lubos Komarek & Kristyna Ters, 2016. "Intraday dynamics of euro area sovereign credit risk contagion," BIS Working Papers 573, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in PacificRim countries: Evidence based on a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-102.
    7. Annalisa Marini & Steve McCorriston, 2017. "Propagation of Commodity Market Shocks," Discussion Papers 1708, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    8. Florian Huber, 2018. "Dealing with cross-country heterogeneity in panel VARs using finite mixture models," Papers 1804.01554, arXiv.org.
    9. Steel, Mark F. J., 2017. "Model Averaging and its Use in Economics," MPRA Paper 81568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Till Weigt & Bernd Wilfling, 2018. "An approach to increasing forecast-combination accuracy through VAR error modeling," CQE Working Papers 6818, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    11. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Does economic policy uncertainty forecast real housing returns in a panel of OECD countries? A Bayesian approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 50-60.
    12. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2016. "Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 110-120.
    13. Schnücker, Annika, 2016. "Restrictions Search for Panel VARs," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145566, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. repec:eee:reveco:v:54:y:2018:i:c:p:123-142 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-73, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Annika Schnücker, 2016. "Restrictions Search for Panel VARs," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1612, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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