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Forecasting And Turning Point Predictions In A Bayesian Panel Var Model

  • Fabio Canova

    (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

  • Matteo Ciccarelli

    (Universidad de Alicante)

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

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File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasad/wpasad-2000-05.pdf
File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2000
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Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie AD with number 2000-05.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by Ivie
Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2000-05
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  1. Canova, Fabio & Marcet, Albert, 1995. "The Poor Stay Poor: Non-Convergence Across Countries and Regions," CEPR Discussion Papers 1265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Zellner, Arnold & Hong, Chansik, 1989. "Forecasting international growth rates using Bayesian shrinkage and other procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 183-202, January.
  4. Hsiao, C. & Pesaran, M. H. & Tahmiscioglu, A. K., 1998. "Bayes Estimation of Short-run Coefficients in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9804, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
  7. Binder, Michael & Hsiao, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2005. "Estimation And Inference In Short Panel Vector Autoregressions With Unit Roots And Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(04), pages 795-837, August.
  8. Siddhartha Chib & Edward Greenberg, 1994. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometrics 9408001, EconWPA, revised 24 Oct 1994.
  9. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "Multivariate regression models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-46, January.
  10. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  11. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  13. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  14. Kadiyala, K. Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1994. "Numerical Aspects of Bayesian VAR-modeling," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 12, Stockholm School of Economics.
  15. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge Roldos, 1997. "Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 97/9, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December.
  17. Zellner, Arnold & Hong, Chansik & Min, Chung-ki, 1991. "Forecasting turning points in international output growth rates using Bayesian exponentially weighted autoregression, time-varying parameter, and pooling techniques," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 275-304.
  18. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2001. "Forecasting and Turning Point Predictions in a Bayesian Panel VAR Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 2961, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Koop, G, 1992. "Aggregate Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 395-411, Oct.-Dec..
  20. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
  21. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Modelling and forecasting exchange rates with a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 233-261.
  23. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
  24. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 4014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio, et al, 1987. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Pooled International Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 53-67, January.
  26. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1995. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 countries," BIS Working Papers 26, Bank for International Settlements.
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