IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tou/journl/v39y2014p105-130.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact Of Monetary Shocks On Regional Output: Evidence From Four South Eurozone Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Angeliki ANAGNOSTOU

    (Department of Economics, University of Thessaly)

  • Stephanos PAPADAMOU

    (Department of Economics, University of Thessaly)

Abstract

This paper quantifies the importance of Optimal Currency Area (OCA) criteria for the monetary policy transmission mechanism at the regional level. The study employs a Bayesian PVAR model to measure the impact of monetary policy shocks on regional output of 58 regions of four South Euro-Zone countries: Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal over the period 1980-2009. The results provide evidence of different regional responses of regional GDP on monetary policy shocks. The policy’s asymmetric effects are explained by employing the OCA framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Angeliki ANAGNOSTOU & Stephanos PAPADAMOU, 2014. "The Impact Of Monetary Shocks On Regional Output: Evidence From Four South Eurozone Countries," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 39, pages 105-130.
  • Handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:39:y:2014:p:105-130
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://regionetdeveloppement.univ-tln.fr/wp-content/uploads/5-Anagnostou.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Binder, Michael & Hsiao, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2005. "Estimation And Inference In Short Panel Vector Autoregressions With Unit Roots And Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 795-837, August.
    2. Michael Owyang & Howard Wall, 2009. "Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1191-1194.
    3. Ilian Mihov, 2001. "Monetary policy implementation and transmission in the European Monetary Union," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 370-406.
    4. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2006. "Trade spill-overs of fiscal policy in the European Union: a panel analysis [‘Fiscal policy, profits, and investment’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 640-687.
    5. Sheila C. Dow & Alberto Montagnoli, 2007. "The Regional Transmission of UK Monetary Policy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 797-808.
    6. Zellner, Arnold & Hong, Chansik, 1989. "Forecasting international growth rates using Bayesian shrinkage and other procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 183-202, January.
    7. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    8. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2013. "Panel Vector Autoregressive Models: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 9380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Ivo J. M. Arnold & Evert B. Vrugt, 2004. "Firm Size, Industry Mix and the Regional Transmission of Monetary Policy in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(1), pages 35-59, February.
    10. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    11. Enrico Marelli, 1985. "Economic Policies And Their Effects Upon Regional Economies," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 127-139, January.
    12. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
    13. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    14. George Georgopoulos, 2009. "Measuring regional effects of monetary policy in Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 2093-2113.
    15. Miguel Almunia & Agustín Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O’Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2010. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: similarities, differences and lessons [Germany: Guns, butter, and economic miracles]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 219-265.
    16. Juan J. de Lucio & Mario Izquierdo, "undated". "Local responses to a global monetary policy: The regional structure of financial systems," Working Papers 99-14, FEDEA.
    17. Joan Costa-i-Font & Ramon Tremosa-i-Balcells, 2003. "Spanish Regions and the Macroeconomic Benefits of the European Monetary Union," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 217-226.
    18. Todd Potts & David Yerger, 2010. "Variations Across Canadian Regions in the Sensitivity to U.S. Monetary Policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(4), pages 443-454, December.
    19. Jiawen Yang, 1997. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 95-104, February.
    20. Theodore M. Crone, 2005. "An Alternative Definition of Economic Regions in the United States Based on Similarities in State Business Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 617-626, November.
    21. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "Multivariate regression models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-46, January.
    22. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, September.
    23. Cohen, Jacob & Maeshiro, Asatoshi, 1977. "The Significance of Money on the State Level: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(4), pages 672-678, November.
    24. Charles B. Garrison & Hui S. Chang, 1979. "The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Regional Business Cycles," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 4(2), pages 167-180, December.
    25. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    26. Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December.
    27. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
    28. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    29. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June.
    30. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Henri L. F. Groot & Piet Rietveld & Peter Nijkamp, 2014. "The Regional Impact of Monetary Policy in Indonesia," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 240-262, June.
    31. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    32. Angelos A. Antzoulatos & Jiawen Yang, 1994. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in U.S. Manufacturing Industries: A Demand Side Story," Working Papers 94-08, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    33. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2005. "Regional cyclical asymmetries in an optimal currency area: an analysis using US state data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 373-397, July.
    34. Zellner, Arnold & Hong, Chansik & Min, Chung-ki, 1991. "Forecasting turning points in international output growth rates using Bayesian exponentially weighted autoregression, time-varying parameter, and pooling techniques," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 275-304.
    35. Eichengreen, Barry, 1990. "One Money for Europe? Lessons from the US Currency Union," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6ks1k831, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    36. Ivo J. M. Arnold & Evert B. Vrugt, 2002. "Regional Effects of Monetary Policy in the Netherlands," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(2), pages 123-134, August.
    37. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Nijkamp, 2010. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Activity - Evidence from a Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-043/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    38. Luc Anselin, 2010. "Thirty years of spatial econometrics," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(1), pages 3-25, March.
    39. Michael S. Hanson & Erik Hurst & Ki Young Park, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Help Least Those Who Need It Most?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-006, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    40. Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2012. "Banks’ lending behavior and monetary policy: evidence from Sweden," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 131-148, February.
    41. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
    42. Theodore M. Crone, 2007. "A pattern of regional differences in the effects of monetary policy," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 9-19.
    43. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
    44. Beckworth, David, 2010. "One nation under the fed? The asymmetric effects of US monetary policy and its implications for the United States as an optimal currency area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 732-746, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eiblmeier, Sebastian, 2023. "Differential Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-707, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    2. Vadim Napalkov & Anna Novak & Andrey Shulgin, 2021. "Variations in the Effects of a Single Monetary Policy: The Case of Russian Regions," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(1), pages 3-45, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ageliki Anagnostou & Stephanos Papadamou, 2012. "The effects of Monetary Policy shocks across the Greek Regions," ERSA conference papers ersa12p507, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Ageliki Anagnostou & Stephanos Papadamou, 2016. "Regional asymmetries in monetary policy transmission: The case of the Greek regions," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 34(5), pages 795-815, August.
    3. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June.
    4. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Henri L. F. Groot & Piet Rietveld & Peter Nijkamp, 2014. "The Regional Impact of Monetary Policy in Indonesia," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 240-262, June.
    5. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    6. Francis Neville & Owyang Michael T. & Sekhposyan Tatevik, 2012. "The Local Effects of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, March.
    7. Ageliki Anagnostou & Piotr Krajewski & Katarzyna Pilat, 2020. "Regional Specific Idiosyncrasies and Fiscal Policy: Evidence from 47 Regions of the Central and Eastern European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 936-954.
    8. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
    9. Beckworth, David, 2010. "One nation under the fed? The asymmetric effects of US monetary policy and its implications for the United States as an optimal currency area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 732-746, September.
    10. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2016. "Interconnections Between Eurozone and us Booms and Busts Using a Bayesian Panel Markov‐Switching VAR Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1352-1370, November.
    11. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Nov 2014.
    12. Vadim Napalkov & Anna Novak & Andrey Shulgin, 2021. "Variations in the Effects of a Single Monetary Policy: The Case of Russian Regions," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(1), pages 3-45, March.
    13. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:124:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Antonio Pacifico, 2019. "Structural Panel Bayesian VAR Model to Deal with Model Misspecification and Unobserved Heterogeneity Problems," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, March.
    15. Ridhwan, M.M. & Nijkamp, P. & Rietveld, P., 2008. "Regional development and monetary policy : a review of the role of monetary unions, capital mobility and locational effects," Serie Research Memoranda 0007, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    16. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl & Ute Volz, 2022. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a Large Multicountry BVAR Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 627-649, March.
    17. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    18. Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Forecasting House Prices for the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy: The Role of a Data-Rich Environment," Working Papers 201214, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Camehl, Annika, 2023. "Penalized estimation of panel vector autoregressive models: A panel LASSO approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1185-1204.
    20. Auer, Simone, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-166.
    21. Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    MONETARY POLICY; INTEREST RATE CHANNEL; PANEL VAR; OCA CRITERIA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:39:y:2014:p:105-130. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christophe Van Huffel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/letlnfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.