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International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves

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  • Martin, Feldkircher

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank))

  • Thomas, Gruber

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank))

  • Florian, Huber

    (University of Salzburg)

Abstract

In this paper, we use a Bayesian global vector autoregressive model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a flattening of euro area yield curves. Our findings indicate positive effects on real activity and prices, both within the euro area as well as in neighboring economies. Spillovers transmit through an exchange rate channel and a broad financial channel. We complement our analysis by conducting a portfolio optimization exercise. Our results show that multi-step-ahead forecasts conditional on the euro area yield curve shock improve Sharpe ratios relative to other investment strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin, Feldkircher & Thomas, Gruber & Florian, Huber, 2019. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Working Papers in Economics 2019-1, University of Salzburg.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:sbgwpe:2019_001
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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Dedola & Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb & Arnaud Mehl, 2018. "Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Hajek, Jan & Horvath, Roman, 2018. "International spillovers of (un)conventional monetary policy: The effect of the ECB and the US Fed on non-euro EU countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 91-105.
    3. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Alessandro Galesi & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2019. "Do SVARs with sign restrictions not identify unconventional monetary policy shocks?," Working Papers 1926, Banco de España.
    4. Lorant Kaszab & Mark Antal, 2021. "Spillover Effects of the European Central Bank's Expanded Asset Purchase Program to Non-eurozone Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," MNB Occasional Papers 2021/140, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    5. Andrejs Zlobins, 2019. "Country-Level Effects of the ECB's Expanded Asset Purchase Programme," Working Papers 2019/02, Latvijas Banka.
    6. Wojciech Grabowski & Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, 2021. "How have the European central bank’s monetary policies been affecting financial markets in CEE-3 countries?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 43-83, March.
    7. Sona Benecka & Ludmila Fadejeva & Martin Feldkircher, 2018. "Spillovers from Euro Area Monetary Policy: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Working Papers 2018/04, Latvijas Banka.
    8. Feldkircher, Martin & Kakamu, Kazuhiko, 2018. "How does monetary policy affect income inequality in Japan? Evidence from grouped data," Working Papers in Regional Science 2018/03, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    9. Martin Feldkircher & Gabriele Tondl, 2020. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 225-247, August.
    10. Clara De Luigi & Martin Feldkircher & Philipp Poyntner & Helene Schuberth, 2019. "Effects of the ECB’s Unconventional Monetary Policy on Real and Financial Wealth," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp286, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    11. Ernest Gnan & Claudia Kwapil & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2018. "Monetary policy after the crisis: mandates, targets, and international linkages," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/18, pages 8-33.
    12. Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Mehl, Arnaud, 2021. "Does a big bazooka matter? Quantitative easing policies and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 489-506.
    13. Makram El-Shagi & Kiril Tochkov, 2020. "Shadow of the Colossus: Euro Area Spillovers and Monetary Policy in Central and Eastern Europe," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2020/7, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    14. Geis, André & Moder, Isabella & Schuler, Tobias, 2020. "Who’s afraid of euro area monetary tightening? CESEE shouldn’t," Working Paper Series 2416, European Central Bank.
    15. Andrea Colabella, 2019. "Do the ECB’s monetary policies benefit emerging market economies? A GVAR analysis on the crisis and post-crisis period," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1207, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Feldkircher, Martin & Siklos, Pierre L., 2019. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 217-241.
    17. Michael Pfarrhofer & Anna Stelzer, 2019. "The international effects of central bank information shocks," Papers 1912.03158, arXiv.org.
    18. Benecká, Soňa & Fadejeva, Ludmila & Feldkircher, Martin, 2020. "The impact of euro Area monetary policy on Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1310-1333.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unconventional monetary policy; spillovers; GVAR; minimum variance portfolio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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