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The European Central Bank’s QE: A new hope

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  • Wieladek, Tomasz
  • Garcia Pascual, Antonio

Abstract

We examine the impact of the ECB’s QE on Euro Area real GDP and core CPI with a Bayesian VAR, estimated on monthly data from 2012M6 to 2016M4. We assess the total impact via a counter-factual exercise, country-by-country and through alternative transmission channels. QE anouncement shocks are identified with four different identification schemes as in Weale and Wieladek (2016). We find that in absence of the first round of ECB QE, real GDP and core CPI would have been 1.3% and 0.9% lower, respectively. The effect is roughly 2/3 times smaller than in the UK/US. Impulse response analysis suggests that the policy is transmitted via the portfolio rebalancing, the signalling, credit easing and exchange rate channels. Spanish real GDP benefited the most and Italian the least.

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  • Wieladek, Tomasz & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2016. "The European Central Bank’s QE: A new hope," CEPR Discussion Papers 11309, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11309
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    2. Zhou, Siwen, 2019. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme in a Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Modelling Framework," MPRA Paper 92530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    4. Luca Dedola & Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb & Arnaud Mehl, 2018. "Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    5. Julia Durcova, 2021. "The Impact of Interest Rate Transmission Channel on the Prices Development in the Eurozone Countries," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 17(2), pages 23-35.
    6. Ryan, Ellen & Whelan, Karl, 2021. "Quantitative easing and the hot potato effect: Evidence from euro area banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    7. Wieladek, Tomasz & Haldane, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt & Young, Chris, 2016. "QE: the story so far," CEPR Discussion Papers 11691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Alan Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2017. "Necessity as the mother of invention: monetary policy after the crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 707-755.
    9. Christian Grimme & Radek Šauer & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "Auswirkungen möglicher Währungskonflikte auf die deutsche und europäische Wirtschaft," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 109.
    10. Andrejs Zlobins, 2020. "Country-level effects of the ECB’s expanded asset purchase programme," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 20(2), pages 187-217.
    11. de Haan, Leo & van den End, Jan Willem, 2018. "The signalling content of asset prices for inflation: Implications for quantitative easing," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 45-63.
    12. Maarten van Rooij & Jakob de Haan, 2016. "Will helicopter money be spent? New evidence," DNB Working Papers 538, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    14. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2020. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Laumer, Sebastian & Violaris, Andreas-Entony, 2024. "Unconventional monetary policy and policy foresight," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    16. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and the Term Premium as a Monetary Policy Instrument," AMSE Working Papers 1932, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    17. Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Mehl, Arnaud, 2021. "Does a big bazooka matter? Quantitative easing policies and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 489-506.
    18. Ugo Panizza & Charles Wyplosz, 2018. "The Folk Theorem of Decreasing Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: What Do the Data Say?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(1), pages 71-107, March.
    19. Gambetti, Luca & Musso, Alberto, 2017. "The macroeconomic impact of the ECB's expanded asset purchase programme (APP)," Working Paper Series 2075, European Central Bank.
    20. Maciej Stefański, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," KAE Working Papers 2021-068, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    21. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    22. Lhuissier Stéphane & Nguyen Benoît, 2021. "The Dynamic Effects of the ECB’s Asset Purchases: a Survey-Based Identification," Working papers 806, Banque de France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ecb unconventional monetary policy; Transmission mechanism;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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