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Missing disinflation and missing inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Bobeica, Elena
  • Jarociński, Marek

Abstract

Recent inflation “puzzles” disappear in a model that properly accounts for domestic and global factors and captures their changing importance over time. While global factors are often important, domestic factors explain much of the inflation dynamics in the recent missing inflation episode in the euro area. JEL Classification: E31, E32, F44

Suggested Citation

  • Bobeica, Elena & Jarociński, Marek, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 30.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2017:0030:
    Note: 2382002
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-research/resbull/2017/html/rb170126.en.html
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-research/resbull/2017/html/rb170126.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Friedrich, Christian, 2016. "Global inflation dynamics in the post-crisis period: What explains the puzzles?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 31-34.
    2. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2012. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World And Country-Specific Factors," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 716-734, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gert Peersman, 2018. "International Food Commodity Prices And Missing (Dis)Inflation In The Euro Area," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 18/947, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. COMUNALE Mariarosaria & STRIAUKAS Jonas, 2017. "Unconventional monetary olicy: interest rates and low inflation. A review of literature and methods," CORE Discussion Papers 2017026, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    3. Gert Peersman, 2018. "International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 7338, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2018. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay ? Insights from a time-varying parameter model with survey data," Working Paper Research 355, National Bank of Belgium.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autoregression; Bayesian Vector; Conditional Forecast; Inflation Dynamics; International Transmission of Shocks; Phillips curve; Shock Identification;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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