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Global inflation dynamics in the post-crisis period: What explains the puzzles?

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  • Friedrich, Christian

Abstract

Using a factor model, I estimate a global Phillips curve for 25 advanced countries over 1995Q1–2013Q3. I find that the inclusion of household inflation expectations in the Phillips curve helps to explain puzzling global inflation dynamics during the post-crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich, Christian, 2016. "Global inflation dynamics in the post-crisis period: What explains the puzzles?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 31-34.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:142:y:2016:i:c:p:31-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.02.032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    2. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2010. "Global Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 524-535, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2018. "Do inflation expectations granger cause inflation?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(2), pages 403-431, August.
    2. Bobeica, Elena & Jarociński, Marek, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 30.
    3. Bovi, Maurizio, 2019. "A Time-Varying Expectations Formation Mechanism," MPRA Paper 97624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gert Peersman, 2018. "International Food Commodity Prices And Missing (Dis)Inflation In The Euro Area," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 18/947, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 52-73.
    6. Elena Bobeica & Marek Jarociński, 2019. "Missing Disinflation and Missing Inflation: A VAR Perspective," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 199-232, March.
    7. Rose Cunningham & Christian Friedrich & Kristina Hess & Min Jae Kim, 2017. "Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices," Discussion Papers 17-12, Bank of Canada.
    8. Gert Peersman, 2018. "International Food Commodity Prices And Missing (Dis)Inflation In The Euro Area," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 18/947, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. Julius Stakenas, 2018. "Slicing up inflation: analysis and forecasting of Lithuanian inflation components," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 56, Bank of Lithuania.
    10. repec:ecr:col031:44666 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2019. "Assessing reliability of aggregated inflation views in the European Commission consumer survey," Research Discussion Papers 10/2019, Bank of Finland.
    12. Xu, Kun & Cheng, Jian-hua & Xu, Wenli, 2016. "通胀及通胀预期冲击的动态特征分析
      [Study on Dynamics of Inflation and Inflation Expectation Shocks in China]
      ," MPRA Paper 71977, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Disinflation; Global Phillips curve; Household inflation expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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