The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation
In this paper we analyze the contribution of international measures of inflation to predict local ones. To that end, we consider the set of current thirty one OECD economies for which inflation data is available at a monthly frequency. By considering this set of countries, a span of time including the post-crisis period and measures of both core and headline inflation, we are extending in three important dimensions the previous literature on this topic. Our main results indicate that on average there is a non-negligible predictive pass-through from international to local inflation both at the core and headline levels. This predictive pass-through has increased in the last period of our sample. Nevertheless, there is heterogeneity in the size and statistical significance of this pass-through which is especially important at the core level. Finally, important reductions in the Root Mean Squared Prediction Error are obtained only for a handful of countries
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Volume (Year): 19 (2016)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2009.
"International macroeconomic dynamics: A factor vector autoregressive approach,"
Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 432-444, March.
- Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2006. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics: a Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach," ICER Working Papers 41-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2006. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 32, Collegio Carlo Alberto.