IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bog/wpaper/314.html

Forecasting inflation: the use of dynamic factor analysis and nonlinear combinations

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen G. Hall

    (Leicester University, Bank of Greece, and Pretoria University)

  • George S. Tavlas

    (Bank of Greece and the Hoover Institution, Stanford University)

  • Yongli Wang

    (Birmingham University)

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of forecasting inflation in the United States, the euro area and the United Kingdom in the presence of possible structural breaks and changing parameters. We examine a range of moving window techniques that have been proposed in the literature. We extend previous work by considering factor models using principal components and dynamic factors. We then consider the use of forecast combinations with time-varying weights. Our basic finding is that moving windows do not produce a clear benefit to forecasting. Time-varying combination of forecasts does produce a substantial improvement in forecasting accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas & Yongli Wang, 2023. "Forecasting inflation: the use of dynamic factor analysis and nonlinear combinations," Working Papers 314, Bank of Greece.
    • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:314
    DOI: 10.52903/wp2023314
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.52903/wp2023314
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.52903/wp2023314?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas & Yongli Wang & Deborah Gefang, 2024. "Inflation forecasting with rolling windows: An appraisal," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 827-851, July.
    3. Panpan Zhu & Qingjie Zhou & Yinpeng Zhang, 2024. "Investor attention and consumer price index inflation rate: Evidence from the United States," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Nikolaos Giannellis & Stephen G. Hall & Georgios P. Kouretas & George S. Tavlas & Yongli Wang, 2025. "Policymaking in Periods of Structural Changes and Structural Breaks: Rolling Windows Revisited," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 851-855, April.
    5. Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas & Lorenzo Trapani & Yongli Wang, 2025. "On the Detection of Structural Breaks: The Case of the Covid Shock," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 1042-1070, April.
    6. Dixon, Huw David & Li, Yiyi & Meenagh, David & Tian, Maoshan, 2024. "Inflation persistence in the UK 1993-2019: from months to years," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    7. Priscila Espinosa & Jose M. Pavía, 2023. "Automation in Regional Economic Synthetic Index Construction with Uncertainty Measurement," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-19, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anastasios Rizos (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boggvgr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.