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Inflation persistence in the UK 1993-2019: from months to years

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Abstract

In this paper we model monthly UK inflation and find that there is some small but significant autocorrelation, particularly at 12 months. We find that this autocorrelation in monthly inflation leads to significant persistence in the headline annual inflation figure. A one-off shock to monthly inflation will have an effect on the headline figure equal to 10% of the original shock after 24 months. We find that this 12-month effect is also present in most of the different types of expenditure. We also find that the 12-month effect is present when we introduce a variety of other demand and cost variables. We also look at core inflation (excluding food and energy) across 9 large market economies (including the USA, Germany, Japan and UK) and find that the 12-month effect is significant in all of them.

Suggested Citation

  • Dixon, Huw David & Li, Yiyi & Meenagh, David & Tian, Maoshan, 2024. "Inflation persistence in the UK 1993-2019: from months to years," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2024/9
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    1. Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas & Yongli Wang, 2023. "Forecasting inflation: The use of dynamic factor analysis and nonlinear combinations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 514-529, April.
    2. Mark W. Watson, 2014. "Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 31-36, May.
    3. Fuhrer, Jeff, 2017. "Expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence: Evidence from survey expectations in a dynamic macro model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 22-35.
    4. Huw Dixon & Engin Kara, 2010. "Can We Explain Inflation Persistence in a Way that Is Consistent with the Microevidence on Nominal Rigidity?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 151-170, February.
    5. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Matthias Paustian, 2009. "Inflation Persistence, Monetary Policy, and the Great Moderation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 767-786, June.
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    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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