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Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession

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  • Mark W. Watson

Abstract

The rate of inflation fell far less over the period 2007-2013 than in the period 1979-1985 despite similar large increases in the unemployment rate. This paper asks why. Possible explanations include a change in the persistence of inflation, changes in NAIRU, and other shocks. A change in the persistence of inflation, with inflation more anchored in the period 2007-2013 than in the period 1979-1985, is found to be important. The level and change in the NAIRU cannot be precisely estimated, but the data suggest an increase of nearly 1 percentage point since 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark W. Watson, 2014. "Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 31-36, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:104:y:2014:i:5:p:31-36
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.31
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. A. D’Agostino & Caterina Mendicino, 2015. "Expectation-Driven Cycles: Time-varying Effects," Working Papers w201504, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2016. "A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 5-18.
    3. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:5:p:883-908 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Feroli, Michael & Hooper, Peter & Kashyap, Anil K & Schoenholtz, Kermit, 2017. "Deflating Inflation Expectations: The Implications of Inflation's Simple Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 11925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Evzen Kocenda & Balazs Varga, 2016. "The impact of monetary strategies on inflation persistence," KIER Working Papers 938, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Mayes, David G. & Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2016. "EMU and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(4), pages 341-364.
    7. Mayes David & Paloviita Maritta & Viren Matti, 2015. "The EMU and the anchoring of inflation expectations?," Discussion Papers 103, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    8. OECD & Elena Rusticelli, 2014. "Rescuing the Phillips curve: Making use of long-term unemployment in the measurement of the NAIRU," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2014(1), pages 109-127.
    9. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2017. "Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    10. Peneva, Ekaterina V. & Rudd, Jeremy B., 2015. "The Passthrough of Labor Costs to Price Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:2:p:247-271 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:bpj:sndecm:v:21:y:2017:i:4:p:18:n:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "Traditional Inflation Dynamics," MPRA Paper 61427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2017. "Will US inflation awake from the dead? The role of slack and non-linearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 247-271.
    15. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. wage Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 19-43.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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