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The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation

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  • Carlos Medel
  • Michael Pedersen
  • Pablo Pincheira

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the contribution of international measures of inflation to predict local ones. To that end, we consider the set of current thirty one OECD economies for which inflation data is available at a monthly frequency. By considering this set of countries, a span of time including the post-crisis period and measures of both core and headline inflation, we are extending in three important dimensions the previous literature on this topic. Our main results indicate that on average there is a non-negligible predictive pass-through from international to local inflation both at the core and headline levels. This predictive pass-through has increased in the last period of our sample. Nevertheless, there is heterogeneity in the size and statistical significance of this pass-through which is especially important at the core level. Finally, important reductions in the Root Mean Squared Prediction Error are obtained only for a handful of countries

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Medel & Michael Pedersen & Pablo Pincheira, 2014. "The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 725, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:725
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    1. Milani, Fabio, 2010. "Global slack and domestic inflation rates: A structural investigation for G-7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 968-981, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2018. "The enduring link between demography and inflation," Research Discussion Papers 8/2018, Bank of Finland.
    2. Carlos A. Medel, 2016. "Un análisis de la capacidad predictiva del precio del cobre sobre la inflación global," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(2), pages 128-153, August.
    3. Friedrich, Christian, 2016. "Global inflation dynamics in the post-crisis period: What explains the puzzles?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 31-34.
    4. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    5. Jonathan Kearns, 2016. "Global inflation forecasts," BIS Working Papers 582, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Pincheira, Pablo, 2017. "A Power Booster Factor for Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability," MPRA Paper 77027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. S. Béreau & V. Faubert & K. Schmidt, 2018. "Explaining and Forecasting Euro Area Inflation: the Role of Domestic and Global Factors," Working papers 663, Banque de France.
    8. Duncan, Roberto & Martinez-Garcia, Enrique, 2018. "New Perspectives on Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Market Economies: An Empirical Assessment," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 338, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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