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Modeling rates of inflation in Nigeria: an application of ARMA, ARIMA and GARCH models

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  • NYONI, THABANI
  • NATHANIEL, SOLOMON PRINCE

Abstract

Based on time series data on inflation rates in Nigeria from 1960 to 2016, we model and forecast inflation using ARMA, ARIMA and GARCH models. Our diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests indicate that NINF time series data is essentially I (1), although it is generally I (0) at 10% level of significance. Based on the minimum Theil’s U forecast evaluation statistic, the study presents the ARMA (1, 0, 2) model, the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model and the AR (3) – GARCH (1, 1) model; of which the ARMA (1, 0, 2) model is clearly the best optimal model. Our diagnostic tests also indicate that the presented models are stable and hence reliable. The results of the study reveal that inflation in Nigeria is likely to rise to about 17% per annum by end of 2021 and is likely to exceed that level by 2027. In order to address the problem of inflation in Nigeria, three main policy prescriptions have been suggested and are envisioned to assist policy makers in stabilizing the Nigerian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani & Nathaniel, Solomon Prince, 2018. "Modeling rates of inflation in Nigeria: an application of ARMA, ARIMA and GARCH models," MPRA Paper 91351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:91351
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph Ifeolu Falegan & Ebele Amali, 2023. "An Evaluation of the Optimal Inflation Target for Economic Growth in Nigeria," Journal of Social Science Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 1-1, June.
    2. Tamerlan Mashadihasanli, 2022. "Stock Market Price Forecasting Using the Arima Model: an Application to Istanbul, Turkiye," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 439-454, July.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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