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Some Simple Tests of the Globalization and Inflation Hypothesis

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  • Jane Ihrig
  • Steven B. Kamin
  • Deborah Lindner
  • Jaime Marquez

Abstract

This paper evaluates the hypothesis that globalization has increased the role of international factors and decreased the role of domestic factors in the inflation process in industrial economies. Towards that end, we estimate standard Phillips curve inflation equations for 11 industrial countries and use these estimates to test several predictions of the globalization and inflation hypothesis. Our results provide little support for this hypothesis. First, the estimated effect of foreign output gaps on domestic consumer price inflation is generally insignificant and often of the wrong sign. Second, we find no evidence that the trend decline in the sensitivity of inflation to the domestic output gap observed in many countries owes to globalization. Finally, and most surprisingly, our econometric results indicate no increase over time in the responsiveness of inflation to import prices for most countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jane Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah Lindner & Jaime Marquez, 2010. "Some Simple Tests of the Globalization and Inflation Hypothesis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 343-375, Winter.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:13:y:2010:i:3:p:343-375
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2010.01268.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. David J. Stockton, 1985. "Unbiased estimation of the inflationary effects of relative price disturbances," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    12. Stockton, David J., 1985. "Unbiased estimation of the inflationary effects of relative price disturbances," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 335-340.
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