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International Food Commodity Prices And Missing (Dis)Inflation In The Euro Area

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  • Gert Peersman

Abstract

This paper examines the causal effects of shifts in international food commodity prices on euro area inflation dynamics using a structural VAR model that is identified with an external instrument (i.e. a series of global harvest shocks). The results reveal that exogenous food commodity price shocks have a strong impact on consumer prices, explaining on average 25%-30% of inflation volatility. In addition, large autonomous swings in international food prices contributed significantly to the twin puzzle of missing disinflation and missing inflation in the era after the Great Recession. Specifically, without disruptions in global food markets, inflation in the euro area would have been 0.2%-0.8% lower in the period 2009-2012 and 0.5%-1.0% higher in 2014-2015. An analysis of the transmission mechanism shows that international food price shocks have an impact on food retail prices through the food production chain, but also trigger indirect effects via rising inflation expectations and a depreciation of the euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Gert Peersman, 2018. "International Food Commodity Prices And Missing (Dis)Inflation In The Euro Area," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 18/947, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:18/947
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    9. Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2021. "The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has it changed over time?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
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    11. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
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    13. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2022. "The effect of rising energy prices amid geopolitical developments and supply disruptions," Working Papers No 07/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
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    21. Wenshou Yan & Yan Cai & Faqin Lin & Dessie Tarko Ambaw, 2021. "The Impacts of Trade Restrictions on World Agricultural Price Volatility during the COVID‐19 Pandemic," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(6), pages 139-158, November.
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    23. Fructuoso Borrallo & Lucía Cuadro-Sáez & Matías Pacce & Isabel Sánchez, 2023. "Consumer food prices: recent developments in the euro area and Spain," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2023/Q2.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food commodity prices; inflation; twin puzzle; euro area; SVAR-IV;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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