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International Food Commodity Prices And Missing (Dis)Inflation In The Euro Area

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  • Gert Peersman

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Abstract

This paper examines the causal effects of shifts in international food commodity prices on euro area inflation dynamics using a structural VAR model that is identified with an external instrument (i.e. a series of global harvest shocks). The results reveal that exogenous food commodity price shocks have a strong impact on consumer prices, explaining on average 25%-30% of inflation volatility. In addition, large autonomous swings in international food prices contributed significantly to the twin puzzle of missing disinflation and missing inflation in the era after the Great Recession. Specifically, without disruptions in global food markets, inflation in the euro area would have been 0.2%-0.8% lower in the period 2009-2012 and 0.5%-1.0% higher in 2014-2015. An analysis of the transmission mechanism shows that international food price shocks have an impact on food retail prices through the food production chain, but also trigger indirect effects via rising inflation expectations and a depreciation of the euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Gert Peersman, 2018. "International Food Commodity Prices And Missing (Dis)Inflation In The Euro Area," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 18/947, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:18/947
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    Cited by:

    1. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Alessandro Galesi & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2019. "Do SVARs with sign restrictions not identify unconventional monetary policy shocks?," Working Papers 1926, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    2. Patrick Bisciari & Hervé Godefroid & Wim Melyn & Ruben Schoonackers & Pierrick Stinglhamber & Luc Van Meensel, 2020. "Belgium’s fiscal framework: what is good and what could be better?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 1-35, december.
    3. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2020. "Short-Term Inflation Projections Model and Its Assessment in Latvia," Working Papers 2020/01, Latvijas Banka.
    4. Dennis Bonam & Gabriele Galati & Irma Hindrayanto & Marco Hoeberichts & Anna Samarina & Irina Stanga, 2019. "Inflation in the euro area since the Global Financial Crisis," DNB Occasional Studies 1703, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Sarah Cheliout, 2020. "Belgium’s innovative capacity seen through the lens of patent data," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 1-39, december.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food commodity prices; inflation; twin puzzle; euro area; SVAR-IV;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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