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Macroeconomic Effects of Disruptions in Global Food Commodity Markets: Evidence for the United States

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  • Jasmien De Winne

    (Ghent University)

  • Gert Peersman

    (Ghent University)

Abstract

We use two approaches to examine the macroeconomic consequences of disruptions in global food commodity markets. First, we embed a novel quarterly composite global production index for the four basic staples (corn, wheat, rice and soybeans) in a standard vector autoregression (VAR) model, and we estimate the dynamic effects of global food commodity supply shocks on the US economy. As an alternative, we also estimate the consequences of thirteen narratively identified global food commodity price shocks. Both approaches deliver similar conclusions. Specifically, an unfavorable food commodity market shock raises food commodity prices, and leads to a rise in food, energy and core inflation, and to a persistent fall in real GDP and consumer expenditures. A closer inspection of the pass-through reveals that households do not only reduce food consumption. In fact, there is a much greater decline in durable consumption and investment. Overall, the macroeconomic effects turn out to be a multiple of the maximum impact implied by the share of food commodities in the consumer price index and household consumption.
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  • Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2016. "Macroeconomic Effects of Disruptions in Global Food Commodity Markets: Evidence for the United States," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 183-286.
  • Handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:47:y:2016:i:2016-02:p:183-286
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    Cited by:

    1. Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2021. "The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has it changed over time?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Gianfranco Giulioni & Edmondo Di Giuseppe & Massimiliano Pasqui & Piero Toscano & Francesco Miglietta, 2018. "Investigating Wheat Price with a Multi-Agent Model," Papers 1807.10537, arXiv.org.
    3. Erten Bilge & Tuzcuoglu Kerem, 2018. "Output Effects of Global Food Commodity Shocks," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Christophe Gouel, 2020. "The Value of Public Information in Storable Commodity Markets: Application to the Soybean Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 846-865, May.
    5. Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2021. "The adverse consequences of global harvest and weather disruptions on economic activity," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 665-672, August.
    6. Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2021. "The Impact of Food Prices on Conflict Revisited," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 547-560, March.
    7. Gert Peersman, 2022. "International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 85-100, March.
    8. Luciana Juvenal, 2020. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike," IMF Working Papers 2020/280, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Florin Aliu & Jiří Kučera & Simona Hašková, 2023. "Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, March.
    10. Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Effects of Precipitation on Food Consumer Price Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9961, CESifo.
    11. Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2018. "Agricultural Price Shocks And Business Cycles: A Global Warning For Advanced Economies," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 18/945, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    12. Gallic, Ewen & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2017. "Weather Shocks, Climate Change and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 81230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Rüth, Sebastian & Bachmann, Rüdiger, 2016. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Macroeconomic Effects of Shifts in Loan-to-Value Ratios," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145826, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    market disruption; global commodity markets; United States; macroeconomics; corn; wheat; rice; soybeans; market shock; consumer price index; household consumption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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