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Asymmetries in the transmission of oil price shocks to inflation in the eurozone

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  • Garzon, Antonio J.
  • Hierro, Luis A.

Abstract

Theory predicts that the level of inflation in an economy and the trend in the prevailing inflation rate may affect how oil price shocks, through their influence on firms’ expectations and price-setting behaviors, are transmitted to inflation. However, empirical evidence regarding this relationship is limited and calls for further exploration. Using data for 12 eurozone countries over the period from 1999 to 2020, we analyze how the inflation environment in which an oil price shock occurs influences its transmission. We find that the inflation environment is a determinant in the way oil supply shocks and oil-specific demand shocks are transmitted to inflation, with positive shocks displaying higher transmission in high inflation environments. Furthermore, transmission of shocks to core inflation, which represents an indirect effect, only occurs in high inflation environments. These findings highlight the need to consider the inflation environment in order to define appropriate monetary policies in response to inflationary pressures caused by oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Garzon, Antonio J. & Hierro, Luis A., 2021. "Asymmetries in the transmission of oil price shocks to inflation in the eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:105:y:2021:i:c:s0264999321002546
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105665
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    6. David Iheke Okorie & Boqiang Lin, 2024. "Global shocks and fiscal stimulus: a tale of an oil-dependent-exporting country," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-37, December.
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    11. Ge, Zhenyu & Sun, Yang, 2024. "Asymmetric impact of oil price shocks on inflation: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
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    14. İbrahim Özmen & Şerife Özşahin, 2023. "Effects of global energy and price fluctuations on Turkey's inflation: new evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2695-2728, August.
    15. Bigerna, Simona, 2023. "Energy price shocks, exchange rates and inflation nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
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    17. Arndt, Sarah & Enders, Zeno, 2023. "Shock Transmissions in Different Inflation Regimes," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277682, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price shocks; Inflation; State-dependent; Asymmetry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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