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Do all oil price shocks have the same impact? Evidence from the Euro Area

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  • Evgenidis, Anastasios

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

In setting policy, central banks need to understand the impact of oil prices on inflation. During the euro area financial and sovereign debt crisis, oil price shocks drove inflation up, while since mid-2014, large negative oil price shocks have been contributed to deflationary pressures in the euro area. This Letter considers whether the impact of oil price shocks is different in periods of uncertainty, such as the financial crisis, and whether positive and negative, large and small oil price shocks affect inflation differently. The findings suggest that there are significant differences in the impact in all these cases; which should be taken into account by policy makers when they are choosing how to respond to oil price shocks

Suggested Citation

  • Evgenidis, Anastasios, 2016. "Do all oil price shocks have the same impact? Evidence from the Euro Area," Economic Letters 07/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:ecolet:07/el/16
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    5. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Ordóñez, Javier, 2018. "Oil prices and unemployment in the UK before and after the crisis: A Bayesian VAR approach. A note," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 200-207.
    6. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2019. "Liquidity, surprise volume and return premia in the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 93-104.
    7. Jiaying Peng & Zhenghui Li & Benjamin M. Drakeford, 2020. "Dynamic Characteristics of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation—From the Perspective of Crude Oil Price Influence Mechanism," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
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    9. Uğur Akkoç & Anıl Akçağlayan & Gamze Kargın Akkoç, 2021. "The impacts of oil price shocks in Turkey: sectoral evidence from the FAVAR approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1147-1171, November.
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    12. Gogolin, Fabian & Kearney, Fearghal & Lucey, Brian M. & Peat, Maurice & Vigne, Samuel A., 2018. "Uncovering long term relationships between oil prices and the economy: A time-varying cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 584-593.
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    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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