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Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices

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  • Marcel Fratzscher
  • Daniel Schneider
  • Ine Van Robays

Abstract

This paper takes a financial market perspective in examining the relationship between oil prices, the US dollar and asset prices, and it exploits the heteroskedasticity for the identification of causality in a multifactor model. It finds a bidirectional causality between the US dollar and oil prices since the early 2000s. Moreover, both oil prices and the US dollar are significantly affected by changes in equity market returns and risk. By contrast, oil prices did not react to changes in these financial assets before 2001. The paper provides evidence that this may be explained by the increased use of oil as a financial asset over the past decade, which intensified the link between oil and other assets. The model can account well for the strong and rising negative correlation between oil prices and the US dollar since the early 2000s, with risk shocks and the financialisation process of oil prices explaining most of the strengthening of this correlation.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 4264, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4264
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-05 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2016. "Reassessing the empirical relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 147-157.
    3. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "The impact of oil shocks on exchange rates: A Markov-switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-23.
    4. Jozef Baruník, Evzen Kocenda and Lukáa Vácha, 2015. "Volatility Spillovers Across Petroleum Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    5. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2017. "Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2119, European Central Bank.
    6. Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2015. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 116-141.
    7. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:104-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates: A non-linear smooth-transition approach," EcoMod2016 9226, EcoMod.
    9. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2016. "Gold, oil, and stocks: Dynamic correlations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 186-201.
    10. Avdulaj, Krenar & Barunik, Jozef, 2015. "Are benefits from oil–stocks diversification gone? New evidence from a dynamic copula and high frequency data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 31-44.
    11. Rieth, Malte & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2014. "Monetary policy, bank bailouts and the sovereign-bank risk nexus in the euro area," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100277, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "The dynamic linkages between crude oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 155-170.
    13. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:476-495 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo, 2017. "Assessing contagion risk from energy and non-energy commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 312-322.
    15. Kayalar, Derya Ezgi & Küçüközmen, C. Coşkun & Selcuk-Kestel, A. Sevtap, 2017. "The impact of crude oil prices on financial market indicators: copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 162-173.
    16. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Forecasting oil price realized volatility: A new approach," MPRA Paper 69105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Georgios Bampinas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2017. "Oil and stock markets before and after financial crises: A local Gaussian correlation approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(12), pages 1179-1204, December.
    18. repec:eee:intfin:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:133-141 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Arfaoui, Mongi & Ben Rejeb, Aymen, 2016. "Oil, Gold, US dollar and Stock market interdependencies: A global analytical insight," MPRA Paper 70452, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil prices; asset prices; exchange rates; US dollar; identification; time-varying correlation;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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