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Oil, Gold, US dollar and Stock market interdependencies: A global analytical insight

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  • Arfaoui, Mongi
  • Ben Rejeb, Aymen

Abstract

This paper takes a global perspective in examining relationships among oil, gold, US dollar and stock prices, using simultaneous equations system to identify direct and indirect linkages for the period spanning from January 1995 to October 2015. Results show significant interactions between the all parties. Indeed, we found negative relation between oil and stock prices but oil price is significantly and positively affected by stock markets, gold and USD. Oil price is also affected by oil future prices and by Chinese oil gross imports. Gold price is concerned by changes in oil, USD and stock market prices but slightly depend on US oil imports and corporate default premium. The US dollar is negatively affected by stock market and significantly by oil and gold prices and also by US consumer price index. Indirect effects always exist which confirm the presence of global interdependencies and involve the financialization process of commodity markets.

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  • Arfaoui, Mongi & Ben Rejeb, Aymen, 2016. "Oil, Gold, US dollar and Stock market interdependencies: A global analytical insight," MPRA Paper 70452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:70452
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    Cited by:

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    2. Daniel ?tefan ARMEANU & Camelia Cãtãlina JOLDE?, 2019. "The Impact Of Bond, Currency And Oil Markets On Investors From The Bucharest Stock Exchange," Proceedings of the INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 13(1), pages 106-114, November.
    3. Cui, Moyang & Wong, Wing-Keung & Wisetsri, Worakamol & Mabrouk, Fatma & Muda, Iskandar & Li, Zeyun & Hassan, Marria, 2023. "Do oil, gold and metallic price volatilities prove gold as a safe haven during COVID-19 pandemic? Novel evidence from COVID-19 data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Guntur Anjana Raju & Shripad Ramchandra Marathe, 2020. "Relationship Between Crude Oil prices and Macro-economic Variables: Evidence from BRICS Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 264-271.
    5. Saif Siddiqui & Preeti Roy, 2019. "Predicting Volatility and Dynamic Relation Between Stock Market, Exchange Rate and Select Commodities," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(6), pages 1597-1611.
    6. Taufeeque Ahmad Siddiqui & Haseen Ahmed & Mohammad Naushad & Uzma Khan, 2023. "The Relationship between Oil Prices and Exchange Rate: A Systematic Literature Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 566-578, May.
    7. Kamaldeen Ajala & Musa Abdullahi Sakanko & Sesan Oluseyi Adeniji, 2021. "The Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on the Exchange Rate and Stock Price in Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 202-208.
    8. Sri Utami Ady, 2021. "The Effect of World Oil Prices, Gold Prices, and Other Energy Prices on the Indonesian Mining Sector with Exchange Rate of Indonesian Rupiah as the Moderating Effect," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 369-376.
    9. Kayalar, Derya Ezgi & Küçüközmen, C. Coşkun & Selcuk-Kestel, A. Sevtap, 2017. "The impact of crude oil prices on financial market indicators: copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 162-173.
    10. Ashfaq, Saleha & Tang, Yong & Maqbool, Rashid, 2023. "Insights of energy and its trade networking impacts on sustainable economic development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    11. Vesarach Aumeboonsuke, 2021. "Commodity Prices and the Stock Market in Thailand," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 34-40.
    12. Narinder Pal Singh & Sugandha Sharma, 2018. "Cointegration and Causality among Dollar, Oil, Gold and Sensex across Global Financial Crisis," Vision, , vol. 22(4), pages 365-376, December.
    13. Farzan Soleymani & Eric Paquet, 2021. "Deep Graph Convolutional Reinforcement Learning for Financial Portfolio Management -- DeepPocket," Papers 2105.08664, arXiv.org.
    14. Benlaria Houcine & Gheraia Zouheyr & Belbali Abdessalam & Hadji Youcef & Abdelli Hanane, 2020. "The Relationship Between Crude Oil Prices, EUR/USD Exchange Rate and Gold Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 234-242.
    15. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian‐Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan & Muhammad Fayaz Khan, 2023. "Stock market reaction to macroeconomic variables: An assessment with dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2436-2448, July.
    16. Angelini, Eliana & Foglia, Matteo & Ortolano, Alessandra & Leone, Maria, 2018. "The “Donald” and the market: Is there a cointegration?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 30-37.
    17. Izabela Pruchnicka-Grabias, 2021. "The Relationship between Gold and Brent Crude Oil Prices: An Unrestricted Vector Autoregression Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 276-282.
    18. Shafa Guliyeva, 2023. "Analysis of the effect of Energy Prices on Stock Indexes During the Epidemic Crisis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 526-536, March.
    19. Roman Mestre, 2019. "Time-Frequency Multi-Betas Model-An Application with Gold and Oil -," Cahiers de recherche 19-05, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    20. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun & Sonola, Ridwan, 2023. "Forecasting stock prices with commodity prices: New evidence from Feasible Quasi Generalized Least Squares (FQGLS) with non-linearities," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    21. Valeska V. Geldres-Weiss & Nathaniel P. Massa & Joaquín Monreal-Pérez, 2021. "Export Promotion Agencies’ Lived Turmoil, Response and Strategies in COVID-19 Times," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-24, November.
    22. Abdulsalam Abidemi Sikiru & Afees A. Salisu, 2023. "Hedging against risks associated with travel and tourism stocks during COVID‐19 pandemic: The role of gold," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1872-1882, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; gold price; trade weighted exchange rate; stock market; simultaneous equations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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