IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Commodity volatility breaks

  • Vivian, Andrew
  • Wohar, Mark E.

Volatility is a key determinant of derivative prices and optimal hedge ratios. This paper examines whether there are structural breaks in commodity spot return volatility using an iterative cumulative sum of squares procedure and then uses GARCH (1,1) to model volatility during each regime.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104244311100093X
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

Volume (Year): 22 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 395-422

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:22:y:2012:i:2:p:395-422
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425.
  2. NG, Serena & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 1997. "Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices," Cahiers de recherche 9709, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  3. Jacks, David S. & O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," CEPR Discussion Papers 7190, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. GIOT, Pierre, 2003. "The Asian financial crisis : the start of a regime switch in volatility," CORE Discussion Papers 2003078, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  5. Abbott, Philip C. & Hurt, Christopher & Tyner, Wallace E., 2008. "What's Driving Food Prices?," Issue Reports 37951, Farm Foundation.
  6. Engle, Robert F & Susmel, Raul, 1993. "Common Volatility in International Equity Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 167-76, April.
  7. Regnier, Eva, 2007. "Oil and energy price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 405-427, May.
  8. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001. "Detecting Multiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 0202, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  9. Bradley T. Ewing & Farooq Malik, 2010. "Estimating Volatility Persistence in Oil Prices Under Structural Breaks," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1023, November.
  10. Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar & Shankar, Rashmi & Trezzi, Riccardo, 2010. "Are commodity prices more volatile now ? a long-run perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5460, The World Bank.
  11. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
  12. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Ng, Victor K & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1994. "Fundamentals and Volatility: Storage, Spreads, and the Dynamics of Metals Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 203-30, April.
  15. Hillebrand, Eric, 2005. "Neglecting parameter changes in GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 121-138.
  16. Adair Turner & Jon Farrimond & Jonathan Hill, 2011. "The oil trading markets, 2003--10: analysis of market behaviour and possible policy responses," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 33-67, Spring.
  17. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2005. "Re-examining the asymmetric predictability of conditional variances: The role of sudden changes in variance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2655-2673, October.
  18. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2001. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Working Papers 01/68, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2010. "The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 65-71, June.
  20. Wang, Ping & Moore, Tomoe, 2009. "Sudden changes in volatility: The case of five central European stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-46, February.
  21. Bahattin Buyuksahin & Jeffrey H. Harris, 2011. "Do Speculators Drive Crude Oil Futures Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 167-202.
  22. de Pooter, M.D. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2004. "Testing for changes in volatility in heteroskedastic time series - a further examination," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  23. Stout Lynn A., 2011. "Risk, Speculation, and OTC Derivatives: An Inaugural Essay for Convivium," Accounting, Economics, and Law, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, January.
  24. Thomas Mikosch & Cătălin Stărică, 2004. "Nonstationarities in Financial Time Series, the Long-Range Dependence, and the IGARCH Effects," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 378-390, February.
  25. David McMillan & Mark Wohar, 2011. "Structural breaks in volatility: the case of UK sector returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(15), pages 1079-1093.
  26. Chan, Kalok & Chan, K C & Karolyi, G Andrew, 1991. "Intraday Volatility in the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 657-84.
  27. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
  28. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-24, April-Jun.
  29. Jianping Mei & Limin Guo, 2004. "Political Uncertainty, Financial Crisis and Market Volatility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(4), pages 639-657.
  30. McMillan, David G. & Ruiz, Isabel, 2009. "Volatility persistence, long memory and time-varying unconditional mean: Evidence from 10 equity indices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 578-595, May.
  31. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq & Ozfidan, Ozkan, 2002. "Volatility transmission in the oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 525-538, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:22:y:2012:i:2:p:395-422. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.