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Testing for changes in volatility in heteroskedastic time series - a further examination

  • de Pooter, M.D.
  • van Dijk, D.J.C.

We consider tests for sudden changes in the unconditional volatility of conditionally heteroskedastic time series based on cumulative sums of squares. When applied to the original series these tests suffer from severe size distortions, where the correct null hypothesis of no volatility change is rejected much too frequently. Applying the tests to standardized residuals from an estimated GARCH model results in good size and reasonable power properties when testing for a single break in the variance. The tests also appear to be robust to different types of misspecification. An iterative algorithm is designed to test sequentially for the presence of multiple changes in volatility. An application to emerging markets stock returns clearly illustrates the properties of the different test statistics.

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File URL: http://repub.eur.nl/pub/1627/ei200438.pdf
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Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Research Papers with number EI 2004-38.

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Date of creation: 22 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1627
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Web page: http://www.eur.nl/ese

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  1. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  9. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August.
  11. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  12. Liu, Ming, 2000. "Modeling long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 139-171, November.
  13. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
  14. Thomas Mikosch & Catalin Starica, 2004. "Non-stationarities in financial time series, the long range dependence and the IGARCH effects," Econometrics 0412005, EconWPA.
  15. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
  16. Berkes, István & Horváth, Lajos, 2003. "Limit results for the empirical process of squared residuals in GARCH models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 271-298, June.
  17. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
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