IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dpc/wpaper/0207.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing for Structural Breaks and Dynamic Changes in Emerging Market Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Duc Khuong Nguyen

    () (ISC Paris School of Management)

  • Mondher Bellalah

    () (University of Cergy-Pontoise)

Abstract

This paper aims to test for structural breaks and dynamic changes in emerging market volatility. We typically relate these issues to stock market liberalization since the latter is often considered as one of the most important forces that promote economic growth and rapid maturation of the emerging markets of the world. Using a bivariate GARCH-M model, stability tests in a linear framework and a pooled time-series cross-section model, we show that structural breaks detected in emerging market volatility series do not happen together with official liberalization dates, but they rather coincide with dates of the first ADR/Country Fund introduction and with dates of large increases in the US capital flows. Consistently, the pooled estimation results indicate that liberalization methods other than liberalization via a formal policy decree are the ones that significantly affect volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Duc Khuong Nguyen & Mondher Bellalah, 2007. "Testing for Structural Breaks and Dynamic Changes in Emerging Market Volatility," Working Papers 02, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
  • Handle: RePEc:dpc:wpaper:0207
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.depocenwp.org/upload/pubs/NguyenDucKhuong/Testing%20for%20Structural%20Breaks.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    4. Konstantinos Kassimatis, 2002. "Financial liberalization and stock market volatility in selected developing countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 389-394.
    5. Gerard, Bruno & Thanyalakpark, Kessara & Batten, Jonathan A., 2003. "Are the East Asian markets integrated? Evidence from the ICAPM," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 585-607.
    6. Eduardo Borensztein & R. Gaston Gelos, 2003. "A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 1-3.
    7. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
    8. De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August.
    9. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
    10. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    11. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
    12. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    13. Kramer, Walter & Ploberger, Werner & Alt, Raimund, 1988. "Testing for Structural Change in Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1355-1369, November.
    14. William Miles, 2002. "Financial Deregulation And Volatility In Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 113-126, December.
    15. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    16. Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "Stock Market Openings: Experience of Emerging Economies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(1), pages 25-66, January.
    17. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    18. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    19. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    20. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    21. Jayasuriya, Shamila, 2005. "Stock market liberalization and volatility in the presence of favorable market characteristics and institutions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 170-191, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Market Liberalization; Return Volatility; Emerging Markets; Bivariate GARCH-M models; Structural Breaks; Pooled Time-Series Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dpc:wpaper:0207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Doan Quang Hung). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/depocvn.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.