IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/una/unccee/wp0603.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural Changes in Volatility and Stock Market Development: Evidence for Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Juncal Cunado

    (School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra)

  • Javier Gómez Biscarri

    (School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra)

  • Fernando Pérez de Gracia

    (School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra)

Abstract

In this paper we review the factors that may lead to structural changes in stock market volatility and present an analysis that assesses whether Spanish stock market volatility has changed significantly over the period 1941-2001. This period corresponds to the years of more profound development of both the financial and the productive sides of the economy in this country. We use alternative methodologies of endogenous breakpoint detection that estimate the dates at which the behavior of stock market volatility changed. The analysis of the Spanish stock market suggests that volatility has behaved in a different manner over the period 1941-2001: From 1972 to 2001, the years of more intense development of the stock market, the Spanish stock market has been characterized by a higher level of volatility and a lower persistence. This effect is partly attributable to the increased growth of trading volume brought about by the economic development process

Suggested Citation

  • Juncal Cunado & Javier Gómez Biscarri & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2003. "Structural Changes in Volatility and Stock Market Development: Evidence for Spain," Faculty Working Papers 06/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    • Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp0603
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.unav.edu/documents/10174/6546776/1132243168_wp0603.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    2. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain & Hall, Alastair, 1998. "Predictive tests for structural change with unknown breakpoint," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 209-233, February.
    3. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 33-55, March.
    4. William Schwert, G., 2002. "Stock volatility in the new millennium: how wacky is Nasdaq?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 3-26, January.
    5. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
    6. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
    7. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-651.
    8. Lang, Larry H P & Litzenberger, Robert H & Madrigal, Vicente, 1992. "Testing Financial Market Equilibrium under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 317-348, April.
    9. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 323-339, May.
    10. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 315-352, June.
    11. Ferderer, J Peter, 1993. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Aggregate Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 30-48, February.
    12. Bekaert, G. & Harvey, C. R. & Lumsdaine, R. L., 2002. "The dynamics of emerging market equity flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 295-350, June.
    13. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
    14. Walsh, Carl E, 1984. "Interest Rate Volatility and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 133-150, May.
    15. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
    16. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    17. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Barkoulas, John T., 2001. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Firm Profitability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 565-576, October.
    18. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
    19. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 2001. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 16-41, February.
    20. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    21. Campa, Jose Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 1999. "Investment, Pass-Through, and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 287-314, May.
    22. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
    23. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    24. Cunado Eizaguirre, Juncal & Biscarri, Javier Gomez & Hidalgo, Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2004. "Structural changes in volatility and stock market development: Evidence for Spain," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1745-1773, July.
    25. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    26. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-250, July.
    27. Sean Becketti & Gordon H. Sellon, 1989. "Has financial market volatility increased?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 74(Jun), pages 17-30.
    28. James M. Poterba, 2000. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
    29. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002. "Dating the integration of world equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August.
    30. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    31. John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Consumption and the Stock Market: Interpreting International Experience," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1763, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    32. Jain, Prem C. & Joh, Gun-Ho, 1988. "The Dependence between Hourly Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 269-283, September.
    33. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    34. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1995. "Can Speculative Trading Explain the Volume-Volatility Relation?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 379-396, October.
    35. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lee, Inpyo & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "Optimal changepoint tests for normal linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 9-38, January.
    36. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    37. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2002. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumer Spending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 69-79, January.
    38. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    39. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    40. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Jul), pages 29-51.
    41. Goldberg, Linda S, 1993. "Exchange Rates and Investment in United States Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 575-588, November.
    42. Angel León & Juan Mora, 1999. "Modelling conditional heteroskedasticity: Application to the "IBEX-35" stock-return index," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 215-238.
    43. Juan Pablo Jimeno, 1995. "Transmisión de volatilidad: el caso español en la crisis de 1992," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 19(1), pages 107-125, January.
    44. Reuven Glick, 1998. "Capital flows and exchange rates in the Pacific Basin," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jul17.
    45. Jushan Bai & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1998. "Testing For and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432.
    46. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
    47. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. "Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yongming Shi & Khalid Ahmed & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati, 2021. "Determinants of stock market development and price volatility in ASEAN plus three countries: The role of institutional quality," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 560-572, January.
    2. Miralles Marcelo, Jose Luis & Quiros, Jose Luis Miralles & Quiros, Maria del Mar Miralles, 2008. "Asymmetric variance and spillover effects: Regime shifts in the Spanish stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-15, February.
    3. Jung-Bin Su, 2022. "The Research on the Interactions between the Emerging and Developed Markets: From Region and Structural Break Perspectives," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-38, April.
    4. Cunado Eizaguirre, Juncal & Biscarri, Javier Gomez & Hidalgo, Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2004. "Structural changes in volatility and stock market development: Evidence for Spain," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1745-1773, July.
    5. Bruce Q. Budd, 2018. "The transmission of international stock market volatilities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(1), pages 155-173, January.
    6. F. Pérez de Gracia & J. Cuñado; J. Gómez, 2004. "Financial Liberalization and Emerging Stock Market Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 124, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Xiaodong Du & Dermot J. Hayes & Cindy L. Yu, 2010. "Dynamics of Biofuel Stock Prices: A Bayesian Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(2), pages 418-425.
    8. Go Tamakoshi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Greek sovereign bond index, volatility, and structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 687-697, October.
    9. Cohen, Lior, 2023. "The effects of the BoJ's ETF purchases on equities and corporate investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. F. Pérez de Gracia & J. Cuñado; J. Gómez, 2004. "Financial Liberalization and Emerging Stock Market Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 124, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Juncal Cuñado & Javier Gómez Biscarri & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2006. "Changes in the Dynamic Behavior of Emerging Market Volatility: Revisiting the Effects of Financial L," Faculty Working Papers 01/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    3. Cunado, Juncal & Gomez Biscarri, Javier & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2006. "Changes in the dynamic behavior of emerging market volatility: Revisiting the effects of financial liberalization," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 261-278, September.
    4. Huang, Roger D. & Masulis, Ronald W., 2003. "Trading activity and stock price volatility: evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 249-269, May.
    5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    7. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, August.
    8. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
    9. Wu, Chunchi & Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor, 2000. "Return Volatility, Trading Imbalance and the Information Content of Volume," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 131-153, March.
    10. Kalev, Petko S. & Liu, Wai-Man & Pham, Peter K. & Jarnecic, Elvis, 2004. "Public information arrival and volatility of intraday stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1441-1467, June.
    11. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    12. Selim Tuzunturk, 2009. "The relationship between volatility and volume on the Istanbul stock exchange," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 289-304.
    13. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Rui, Oliver M, 2001. "The Dynamic Relation between Stock Returns, Trading Volume, and Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 153-173, August.
    14. Ekaterini Tsouma, 2007. "Stock return dynamics and stock market interdependencies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 805-825.
    15. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    16. Hervé Le Bihan, 2004. "Tests de ruptures : une application au PIB tendanciel français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 133-154.
    17. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    18. Sam Howison & David Lamper, 2001. "Trading volume in models of financial derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 119-135.
    19. Bekaert, G. & Harvey, C. R. & Lumsdaine, R. L., 2002. "The dynamics of emerging market equity flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 295-350, June.
    20. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2008. "Cross‐Country Evidence On Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance And Garch Models," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 509-541, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp0603. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.unav.edu/web/facultad-de-ciencias-economicas-y-empresariales .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.