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Causality between trading volume and returns: Evidence from quantile regressions

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  • Gebka, Bartosz
  • Wohar, Mark E.

Abstract

We analyse the causality between past trading volume and index returns in the Pacific Basin countries. OLS results indicate no causal link between volume and returns. However, the quantile regression method reveals strong nonlinear causality: positive for high return quantiles and negative for low ones. Causality in quantiles is not a statistical artefact of causality in periods of high volatility, i.e., causality does not occur in a clustered manner. Causality in quantiles helps to explain the lack of causality between volume and raw returns on the one hand and a strong causal relationship between volume and return volatility on the other.

Suggested Citation

  • Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Causality between trading volume and returns: Evidence from quantile regressions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 144-159.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:144-159
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2012.09.009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trading volume; Volume–return causality; Quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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