Revisiting the empirical linkages between stock returns and trading volume
This paper investigates whether the empirical linkages between stock returns and trading volume differ over the fluctuations of stock markets, i.e., whether the return–volume relation is asymmetric in bull and bear stock markets. Using monthly data for the S&P 500 price index and trading volume from 1973M2 to 2008M10, strong evidence of asymmetry in contemporaneous correlation is found. As for a dynamic (causal) relation, it is found that the stock return is capable of predicting trading volume in both bear and bull markets. However, the evidence for trade volume predicting returns is weaker.
|Date of creation:||03 Feb 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1993. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 193-208, February.
- Allan Timmermann & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 1999.
"Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp335, Financial Markets Group.
- Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, 06.
- Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
- Tom Doan, . "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Lee, Bong-Soo & Rui, Oliver M., 2002. "The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume: Domestic and cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 51-78, January.
- Harrison Hong & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005.
"Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles,"
NBER Working Papers
11367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hutson, Elaine & Kearney, Colm & Lynch, Margaret, 2008.
"Volume and skewness in international equity markets,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1255-1268, July.
- Colm Kearney & Margaret Lynch, 2005. "Volume and Skewness in International Equity Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp043, IIIS.
- Ning, Cathy & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2009.
"Extreme return-volume dependence in East-Asian stock markets: A copula approach,"
Finance Research Letters,
Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 202-209, December.
- Cathy Ning & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2008. "Extreme Return-Volume Dependence in East-Asian Stock Markets: A Copula Approach," Working Papers 08009, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics.
- Campbell, John Y & Grossman, Sanford J & Wang, Jiang, 1993.
"Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 905-39, November.
- Wang, Jiang & Grossman, Sanford & Campbell, John, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3128710, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1992. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 4193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
- Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-93, Sept.-Oct.
- Chia-Chang Chuang & Chung-Ming Kuan & Hsin-yi Lin, 2007.
"Causality in Quantiles and Dynamic Stock Return-Volume Relations,"
IEAS Working Paper : academic research
07-A006, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
- Chuang, Chia-Chang & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Lin, Hsin-Yi, 2009. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1351-1360, July.
- Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
- Saatcioglu, Kemal & Starks, Laura T., 1998. "The stock price-volume relationship in emerging stock markets: the case of Latin America," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 215-225, June.
- McMillan, David G., 2007. "Non-linear forecasting of stock returns: Does volume help?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 115-126.
- Garcia, Rene, 1998.
"Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-88, August.
- René Garcia, 1995. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-07, CIRANO.
- Meir Statman & Steven Thorley & Keith Vorkink, 2006. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1531-1565.
- Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. " Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-81, March.
- Eleanor Xu, Xiaoqing & Chen, Peter & Wu, Chunchi, 2006. "Time and dynamic volume-volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1535-1558, May.
- Frauendorfer, Karl & Jacoby, Ulrich & Schwendener, Alvin, 2007. "Regime switching based portfolio selection for pension funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2265-2280, August.
- Zacharias Psaradakis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2003.
"On The Determination Of The Number Of Regimes In Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 237-252, 03.
- Zacharias Psaradakis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2002. "On the Determination of the Number of Regimes in Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 83, Society for Computational Economics.
- Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. " Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-64, December.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36897. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.