Volatility transmission between gold and oil futures under structural breaks
This paper employs univariate and bivariate GARCH models to examine the volatility of gold and oil futures incorporating structural breaks using daily returns from July 1, 1993 to June 30, 2010. We find strong evidence of significant transmission of volatility between gold and oil returns when structural breaks in variance are accounted for in the model. We compute optimal portfolio weights and dynamic risk minimizing hedge ratios to highlight the significance of our empirical results. Our findings support the idea of cross-market hedging and sharing of common information by financial market participants.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
- Benjamin Hunt, 2006. "Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Stagflation of the 1970s: Some Insights from GEM," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 61-80.
- Hillebrand, Eric, 2005. "Neglecting parameter changes in GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 121-138.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984.
"The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
1462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1142-51, December.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," Working papers 353, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Jonathan A. Batten & Brian M. Lucey, 2007.
"Volatility in the Gold Futures Market,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
- Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-44.
- Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2002. "Crack spread hedging: accounting for time-varying volatility spillovers in the energy futures markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 269-289.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Xinwei Zheng, 2010.
"Gold and Oil Futures Markets: Are Markets Efficient?,"
2010_13, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Zheng, Xinwei, 2010. "Gold and oil futures markets: Are markets efficient?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(10), pages 3299-3303, October.
- Bradley T. Ewing & Farooq Malik, 2010. "Estimating Volatility Persistence in Oil Prices Under Structural Breaks," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1023, November.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002.
"Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001. "Detecting Mutiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-65, CIRANO.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001. "Detecting Multiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 0202, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
- Hooker, Mark A, 2002. "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 540-61, May.
- Malik, Farooq & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2007. "Shock and volatility transmission in the oil, US and Gulf equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 357-368.
- Andreu Sansó & Vicent Aragó & Josep Lluís Carrion, 2003. "Testing for Changes in the Unconditional Variance of Financial Time Series," DEA Working Papers 5, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
- Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
- Cătălin Stărică & Clive Granger, 2005.
"Nonstationarities in Stock Returns,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 503-522, August.
- Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 351-362, March.
- Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "Information and volatility linkages in the stock, bond, and money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 111-137, July.
- Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yuan, Yuan, 2008. "Metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 606-620, March.
- Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010.
"Is gold a safe haven? International evidence,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
- Dirk G. Baur & Thomas K. McDermott, . "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp310, IIIS.
- Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2005. "Re-examining the asymmetric predictability of conditional variances: The role of sudden changes in variance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2655-2673, October.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
- David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
- Geman, Hélyette & Kharoubi, Cécile, 2008. "WTI crude oil Futures in portfolio diversification: The time-to-maturity effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2553-2559, December.
- Ross, Stephen A, 1989. " Information and Volatility: The No-Arbitrage Martingale Approach to Timing and Resolution Irrelevancy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-17, March.
- Hui Guo & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2005. "Oil price volatility and U.S. macroeconomic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 669-84.
- Capie, Forrest & Mills, Terence C. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2005. "Gold as a hedge against the dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 343-352, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:113-121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.