Gold and Oil Futures Markets: Are Markets Efficient?
In this paper we examine the long-run relationship between gold and oil spot and futures markets. We draw on the conceptual framework that when oil price rises, it creates inflationary pressures, which instigate investments in gold as a hedge against inflation. We test for the long-run relationship between gold and oil futures prices at different maturity and unravel evidence of cointegration. This implies that: (a) investors use the gold market as a hedge against inflation, and (b) the oil market can be used to predict the gold market prices and vice versa, thus these two markets are jointly inefficient, at least for the sample period considered in this study.
|Date of creation:||16 Jul 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood 3125|
Phone: 61 3 9244 3815
Fax: +61 3 5227 2655
Web page: http://www.deakin.edu.au/buslaw/aef/index.php
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2007. "Modelling oil price volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6549-6553, December.
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992.
"residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts,"
862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2009. "World oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5557-5566, December.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Wong, Philip, 2009. "A panel data analysis of the determinants of oil consumption: The case of Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(12), pages 2771-2775, December.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Do Gold Market Returns Have Long Memory?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 181-202, May.
- Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De, 2009. "Energy prices, multiple structural breaks, and efficient market hypothesis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 466-479, April.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yuan, Yuan, 2008. "Metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 606-620, March.
- Hooker, Mark A, 2002. "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 540-61, May.
- Tschoegl, Adrian E., 1980. "Efficiency in the gold market -- a note," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 371-379, December.
- Capie, Forrest & Mills, Terence C. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2005. "Gold as a hedge against the dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 343-352, October.
- Baffes, John, 2007.
"Oil spills on other commodities,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
4333, The World Bank.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2010. "Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 356-361, January.
- Phillips, P C B, 1987.
"Time Series Regression with a Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "PPUNIT: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Perron Unit Root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00160, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor & Fung, Hung-Gay, 2005. "Cross-market linkages between U.S. and Japanese precious metals futures trading," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 107-124, April.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 919-936, May.
- Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 351-362, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Hayat, Aziz & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2010. "The oil stock fluctuations in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-184, January.
- Ogden, Joseph P & Tucker, Alan L & Vines, Timothy W, 1990. "Arbitraging American Gold Spot and Futures Options," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 577-592, November.
- Benjamin Hunt, 2006. "Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Stagflation of the 1970s: Some Insights from GEM," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 61-80.
- Bailey, Warren Bernard, 1988. "Money Supply Announcements and the Ex Ante Volatility of Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 611-20, November.
- Christie-David, Rohan & Chaudhry, Mukesh & Koch, Timothy W., 2000. "Do macroeconomics news releases affect gold and silver prices?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 405-421.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Popp, Stephan, 2009. "Can the electricity market be characterised by asymmetric behaviour?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4364-4372, November.
- Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath & Rohan Christie David, 2000. "Price discovery in strategically-linked markets: the case of the gold-silver spread," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 227-234.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dkn:econwp:eco_2010_13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr Xueli Tang)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.