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Sudden changes in volatility: The case of five central European stock markets


  • Wang, Ping
  • Moore, Tomoe


This paper investigates sudden changes in volatility in the stock markets of new European Union (EU) members by utilizing the iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm. Using weekly data over the sample period 1994-2006, the time period of sudden change in variance of returns and the length of this variance shift are detected. A sudden change in volatility seems to arise from the evolution of emerging stock markets, exchange rate policy changes and financial crises. Evidence also reveals that when sudden shifts are taken into account in the GARCH models, the persistence of volatility is reduced significantly in every series. It suggests that many previous studies may have overestimated the degree of volatility persistence existing in financial time series.

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  • Wang, Ping & Moore, Tomoe, 2009. "Sudden changes in volatility: The case of five central European stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-46, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:19:y:2009:i:1:p:33-46

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Monetary Policy: An ARCH Application," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 66-77, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Volatility persistence in crude oil markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 729-742.
    2. Jean-Pascal Bassino & Thomas Lagoarde-Segot, 2015. "Informational efficiency in the Tokyo Stock Exchange, 1931–40," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 68(4), pages 1226-1249, November.
    3. Esqueda, Omar A. & Assefa, Tibebe A. & Mollick, André Varella, 2012. "Financial globalization and stock market risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 87-102.
    4. Go Tamakoshi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Greek sovereign bond index, volatility, and structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 687-697, October.
    5. Agata Kliber & Blanka Let & Aleksandra Rutkowska, 2016. "Socio-demographic characteristics of investors in the Warsaw Stock Exchange – How they influence the investment decision," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(2), pages 91-118.
    6. Bruce Q. Budd, 2016. "Structural break tests and the Greek sovereign debt crisis: revisited," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(3), pages 607-622, July.
    7. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Pop, Adrian, 2015. "Risk and ethical investment: Empirical evidence from Dow Jones Islamic indexes," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 33-56.
    8. Sang Hoon Kang & Seong-Min Yoon, 2010. "Sudden Changes and Persistence in Volatility of Korean Equity Sector Returns," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 26, pages 431-451.
    9. Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2011. "On the relationship of persistence and number of breaks in volatility: new evidence for three CEE countries," MPRA Paper 27927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:spr:jecfin:v:42:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s12197-017-9391-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Kang, Sang Hoon & Cheong, Chongcheul & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2011. "Structural changes and volatility transmission in crude oil markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4317-4324.
    12. Ping Wang & Tomoe Moore, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to currency crises: country-specific factors versus regional factors," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 619-640, November.
    13. Koulakiotis, Athanasios & Babalos, Vassilios & Papasyriopoulos, Nicholas, 2016. "Financial crisis, liquidity and dynamic linkages between large and small stocks: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 46-62.
    14. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2012. "Commodity volatility breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-422.
    15. Lucía Morales & Bernadette Andreosso-O’Callaghan, 2014. "Volatility analysis of precious metals returns and oil returns: An ICSS approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(3), pages 492-517, July.
    16. Kumar, Dilip & Maheswaran, S., 2013. "Detecting sudden changes in volatility estimated from high, low and closing prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 484-491.
    17. Jean-Pascal Bassino & Thomas Lagoarde-Segot, 2013. "Trading patterns at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, 1931-1940," CEH Discussion Papers 012, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    18. Wasim Ahmad & N.R. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2014. "The Eurozone crisis and its contagion effects on the European stock markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 325-352, July.
    19. Kang, Sang Hoon & Cho, Hwan-Gue & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2009. "Modeling sudden volatility changes: Evidence from Japanese and Korean stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(17), pages 3543-3550.


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