IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices

  • Marcel Fratzscher
  • Daniel Schneider
  • Ine Van Robays

This paper takes a financial market perspective in examining the relationship between oil prices, the US dollar and asset prices, and it exploits the heteroskedasticity for the identification of causality in a multifactor model. It finds a bidirectional causality between the US dollar and oil prices since the early 2000s. Moreover, both oil prices and the US dollar are significantly affected by changes in equity market returns and risk. By contrast, oil prices did not react to changes in these financial assets before 2001. The paper provides evidence that this may be explained by the increased use of oil as a financial asset over the past decade, which intensified the link between oil and other assets. The model can account well for the strong and rising negative correlation between oil prices and the US dollar since the early 2000s, with risk shocks and the financialisation process of oil prices explaining most of the strengthening of this correlation.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1302.

in new window

Length: 39 p.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1302
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin

Phone: xx49-30-89789-0
Fax: xx49-30-89789-200
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00634796, HAL.
  2. Andreas Breitenfellner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices and the USD/EUR Exchange Rate," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4.
  3. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Kilian, Lutz & Park, Cheolbeom, 2007. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
  6. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Working Paper Series 0452, European Central Bank.
  7. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Shing-Yi Wang & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 784, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2009. "Oil shocks and external balances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 181-194, April.
  9. Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Erceg & Martin Bodenstein, 2008. "Oil Shocks and External Adjustment," 2008 Meeting Papers 945, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
  11. Canova, Fabio & Paustian, Matthias, 2011. "Business cycle measurement with some theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 345-361.
  12. Roberto Rigobon & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "What explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis?," Working Paper Series 1060, European Central Bank.
  14. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Sentana, E. & Fiorentini, G., 1997. "Identification, Estimation and Testing of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Model," Papers 9709, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  16. Hafedh Bouakez & Michel Normandin, 2008. "Fluctuations in the Foreign Exchange Market: How Important are Monetary Policy Shocks?," Cahiers de recherche 0818, CIRPEE.
  17. Enzo Weber, 2008. "Macro Wine in Financial Skins: The Oil-FX Interdependence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-048, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  18. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
  19. Selien De Schryder & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Us Dollar Exchange Rate And The Demand For Oil," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/893, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  20. Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi & Yu-chin Chen, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," 2008 Meeting Papers 540, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chen, Hung-Chyn, 2007. "Oil prices and real exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 390-404, May.
  22. Markku Lanne & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2006. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks viaChanges in Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 1744, CESifo Group Munich.
  23. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not As Bad As You Think," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 381-441 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. Karin Wagner, 2008. "Housing Market Challenges in Europe and the United States – Any Solutions Available?," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 124–134.
  26. Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 11-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  27. Lombardi, Marco J. & Van Robays, Ine, 2011. "Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?," Working Paper Series 1346, European Central Bank.
  28. Forbes, Kristin & Chinn, Menzie, 2003. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets over Time," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt6z74b3x7, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  29. G. Peersman, 2004. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/235, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  30. Ine Van Robays, 2012. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Impact of Oil Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3937, CESifo Group Munich.
  31. Almuth Scholl & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "New Evidence on the Puzzles. Results from Agnostic Identification on Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  32. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
  33. Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2009. "Oil and the Euro area economy," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 603-651, October.
  34. Geert Bekaert & Marie Hoerova, 2010. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 10, pages 11-13.
  35. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 13811, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Maurizio Michael Habib & Sascha Bützer & Livio Stracca, 2016. "Global Exchange Rate Configurations: Do Oil Shocks Matter?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 443-470, August.
  37. Toni Gravelle & Maral Kichian & James Morley, 2002. "Detecting shift-contagion in currency and bond markets," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 58, Society for Computational Economics.
  38. Golub, Stephen S, 1983. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 576-93, September.
  39. Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2008. "Oil Price and the Dollar," Post-Print halshs-00353404, HAL.
  40. Ayoub Yousefi & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2005. "A stylized exchange rate pass-through model of crude oil price formation," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(3), pages 177-197, 09.
  41. Brahim Razgallah & Kamal Smimou, 2011. "Oil prices and the greenback: it takes two to tango," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 519-528.
  42. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
  43. Yousefi, Ayoub & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2003. "Exchange rate of the US dollar and the J curve: the case of oil exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 741-765, November.
  44. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Fan, Ying & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Spillover effect of US dollar exchange rate on oil prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 973-991.
  45. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence Between the Euro Area and the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 928-948, October.
  46. Paul Krugman, 1983. "Oil Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 259-284 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Daniel, Betty C., 1998. "Long-run equilibrium real exchange rates and oil prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 231-238, February.
  48. Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1302. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.