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Effects of commodity price shocks on inflation: A cross-country analysis

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  • Atsushi Sekine
  • Takayuki Tsuruga

Abstract

Since the 2000s, large fluctuations in commodity prices have become a concern among policymakers regarding price stability. This paper investigates the effects of commodity price shocks on headline inflation with a monthly panel consisting of 144 countries. We find that the effects of commodity price shocks on inflation virtually disappear within about one year after the shock. While the effect on the level of consumer prices varies across countries, this transitory effect is fairly robust, suggesting a low risk of a persistent second-round effect on inflation. Employing the smooth transition autoregressive models that use past inflation as the transition variable, we also explore the possibility that the effect of commodity price shocks could be persistent, depending on inflation regimes. In this specification, commodity price shocks may not have transitory effects when a country’s currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar. However, the effect remains transitory in countries with exchange-rate flexibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Atsushi Sekine & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2017. "Effects of commodity price shocks on inflation: A cross-country analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2017-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-45
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2017-07/45_2017_sekine_tsuruga.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Siami-Namini, Sima & Hudson, Darren & Trindade, A. Alexandre & Lyford, Conrad, 2018. "Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy and the Taylor Rule," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266719, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Choi, Chi-Young & Chudik, Alexander, 2019. "Estimating impulse response functions when the shock series is observed," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 71-75.
    3. Tomomi Miyazaki & Kazuki Hiraga & Masafumi Kozuka, 2018. "Stock Market Response to Public Investment under the Zero Lower Bound: Cross-industry Evidence from Japan," Working Papers 171806, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity prices; inflation; pass-through; local projections; smooth transition autoregressive models;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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