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How Large and Persistent is the Response of Inflation to Changes in Retail Energy Prices?

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  • Mr. Chadi Abdallah
  • Mr. Kangni R Kpodar

Abstract

We estimate the dynamic effects of changes in retail energy prices on inflation using a novel monthly database, covering 110 countries over 2000:M1 to 2016:M6. We find that (i) inflation responds positively to retail energy price shocks, with effects being, on average, modest and transitory. However, our results suggest significant heterogeneity in the response of inflation to these shocks owing to differences in factors related to labor market flexibility, energy intensity, and monetary policy credibility. We also find compelling evidence of asymmetric effects—under sufficiently large shocks—in the case of high-income and low-income countries, with increases in retail fuel prices inducing larger effects on inflation than decreases in fuel prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Chadi Abdallah & Mr. Kangni R Kpodar, 2020. "How Large and Persistent is the Response of Inflation to Changes in Retail Energy Prices?," IMF Working Papers 2020/093, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/093
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    Cited by:

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    3. Michael Reiter & Christian Kimmich & Elisabeth Laa & Daniel Schmidtner & Adrian Wende & Klaus Weyerstraß, 2024. "Auswirkungen von Energiepreisen auf Österreichs Exportwirtschaft," FIW Research Reports series y:2024:m:05, FIW.
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    6. Ondřej Bednář & Andrea Čečrdlová & Božena Kadeřábková & Pavel Řežábek, 2022. "Energy Prices Impact on Inflationary Spiral," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, May.
    7. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta, 2024. "Heterogeneous responsiveness of consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    8. Ordoñez Lucas Sebastián, 2024. "The transmission of Supply Shocks to inflation: The case of Argentina (2004-2023)," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4750, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    9. Sánchez García, Javier & Galdeano Gómez, Emilio & Cruz Rambaud, Salvador, 2024. "Drivers of inflationary shocks and spillovers between Europe and the United States," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    10. Batten, Jonathan A. & Mo, Di & Pourkhanali, Armin, 2024. "Can inflation predict energy price volatility?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Andreani, Michele & Giri, Federico, 2023. "Not a short-run noise! The low-frequency volatility of energy inflation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    12. Чернявский Денис // Chernyavskiy Denis & Сейдахметов Ансар // Seidakhmetov Ansar, 2023. "Влияние повышения цен на горюче-смазочные материалы (ГСМ) на инфляцию: опыт Казахстана. // The impact of the increase in prices for fuels and lubricants on inflation: the experience of Kazakhstan," Working Papers #2023-6, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    13. Lucas Ordóñez, 2025. "The Transmission of Supply Shocks to Inflation: the Case of Argentina (2004-2022)," Working Papers 351, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; price; standard deviation; fuel price shock; spiral effects; shocks lead; wage-price spiral effects; energy price; price shock; Fuel prices; Inflation; Energy prices; Oil prices; Personal income; Global; Retail fuel prices; local projections; asymmetries; non-linearity; inflation response;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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