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Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation: A Cross Country Analysis

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  • Atsushi Sekine
  • Takayuki Tsuruga

Abstract

Using local projections, this paper investigates e ects of commodity price shocks on in ation. We estimate impulse responses of the consumer price indexes (CPIs) to a commodity price shock, based on a monthly panel consisting of 120 countries. Our results from the local projections suggest that the CPIs are almost fully adjusted within a year in response to a commodity price shock and thus e ects of commodity price shocks are transitory. We then explore the possibility that the responses of the CPIs may be dependent on the in ation regimes. Based on the smooth transition autoregressive models that use the past in ation rate as a transition variable, we nd that commodity price shocks have more persistent e ects on in ation in the low in ation regime than in the high in ation regime. Our analysis also shows that, in the high in ation regime, there are (i) stabilizing roles of the exchange rate on consumer prices; and (ii) large di erences in price responses between developed and developing countries. However, these e ects are not detected in the low in ation regime. Our ndings suggest that business cycle factors may play an important role in understanding e ects of commodity price shocks on the CPIs.

Suggested Citation

  • Atsushi Sekine & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2014. "Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation: A Cross Country Analysis," Discussion papers e-13-006, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
  • Handle: RePEc:kue:dpaper:e-13-006
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    2. Fukunaga,Ichiro & Komatsuzaki,Takuji & Matsuoka,Hideaki, 2020. "Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in Advanced Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9129, The World Bank.
    3. Ichiro Fukunaga & Takuji Komatsuzaki & Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Inflation and public debt reversals in advanced economies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 124-137, January.
    4. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2022. "Commodity price pass-through along the pricing chain," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 109-125, February.
    5. Afees A. Salisu & Raymond Swaray & Hadiza Sa'id, 2021. "Improving forecasting accuracy of the Phillips curve in OECD countries: The role of commodity prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2946-2975, April.
    6. Garzon, Antonio J. & Hierro, Luis A., 2021. "Asymmetries in the transmission of oil price shocks to inflation in the eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    7. Chen, Yufeng & Yang, Shuo, 2021. "Time-varying effect of international iron ore price on China’s inflation: A complete price chain with TVP-SVAR-SV model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Choi, Chi-Young & Chudik, Alexander, 2019. "Estimating impulse response functions when the shock series is observed," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 71-75.
    9. Pažický Martin, 2021. "Oil price shock in the US and the euro area – evidence from the shadow rate and the term premium," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 21(3), pages 309-346, September.
    10. Abbas, Syed Kanwar & Lan, Hao, 2020. "Commodity price pass-through and inflation regimes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    11. Indrė Lapinskaitė & Algita Miečinskienė, 2019. "Assessment of the Impact of Hard Commodity Prices Changes on Inflation in European Union Countries," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(5), pages 18-35.
    12. Ting-Ting Sun & Chi-Wei Su & Ran Tao & Meng Qin, 2021. "Are Agricultural Commodity Prices on a Conventional Wisdom with Inflation?," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, August.
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    15. Tomomi Miyazaki & Kazuki Hiraga & Masafumi Kozuka, 2018. "Stock Market Response to Public Investment under the Zero Lower Bound: Cross-industry Evidence from Japan," Working Papers 171806, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor demand; Commodity prices; in ation; pass-through; local projections; smooth transition autoregressive models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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