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Pass-Through of Oil Prices to Japanese Domestic Prices


  • Etsuro Shioji
  • Taisuke Uchino


In this paper, we investigate changes in the impacts of world crude oil prices on domestic prices in Japan. First, we employ a time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) approach to confirm that the rate of pass-through of oil prices declined, both at the aggregate and sectoral levels, for the period 1980-2000. Second, by utilizing Input-Output Tables, we find that changing cost structure of Japanese firms goes a long way toward explaining this decline. That is, by the year 2000, oil had become a much smaller component of the Japanese production cost structure. We further find that much of this is attributable to changes in relative prices: as oil became cheaper, it became less important in the overall cost structure, and thus pricing behaviors of firms became less responsive to its prices. Substitution effects, namely firms' shifts toward less oil intensive production, on the other hand, appear to be less important. We also study the period 2000-2007. We find that, although pass-through rates of oil prices increase in many instances, those increases are small in comparison to the drastic resurgence of oil in the cost structure of firms. We present some possible explanations for this finding.

Suggested Citation

  • Etsuro Shioji & Taisuke Uchino, 2010. "Pass-Through of Oil Prices to Japanese Domestic Prices," NBER Working Papers 15888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15888
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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2012. "The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited," NBER Chapters,in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 119-175 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
    7. Takatoshi Ito & Kiyotaka Sato, 2008. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1407-1438, October.
    8. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 221-222, October.
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    10. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 1999. "Measurement Errors in the Japanese Consumer Price Index," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 69-102, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Srinivasan, Sunderasan, 2014. "Economic populism, partial deregulation of transport fuels and electoral outcomes in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 465-475.
    2. Atsushi Sekine & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2014. "Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation:A Cross-Country Analysis," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 038, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    3. Shioji, Etsuro, 2015. "Time varying pass-through: Will the yen depreciation help Japan hit the inflation target?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 43-58.
    4. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
    5. Etsuro Shioji, 2012. "The Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japan:A Re-evaluation Based on Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 8(1), pages 67-92, June.
    6. Naurin, Abida & Qayyum, Abdul, 2016. "Impact of Oil Price and Its Volatility on CPI of Pakistan: Bivariate EGARCH Model," MPRA Paper 69774, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2014. "Pass-through of oil prices to domestic prices: Evidence from an oil-hungry but oil-poor emerging market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 67-74.
    8. Huong Le Thu HOANG & SATO Kiyotaka, 2016. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Production Chains: Application of input-output analysis," Discussion papers 16034, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy


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