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Measurement Errors in the Japanese Consumer Price Index

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  • Shiratsuka, Shigenori

    (Institute for Monetary & Econ Studies, Bank of Japan)

Abstract

In Japan, the consumer price index (CPI) is widely used as a measure of inflation or the cost of living. The CPI is constructed by using a fixed-weight Laspeyres formula. This formula is used mainly because of its ease of calculation and comprehension, thus limiting the total cost of constructing the statistics. However, such simplicity makes it difficult for the CPI to reflect dynamic changes in economic activity such as changes in consumers' behavior between goods in response to relative price fluctuation, the introduction of new goods, and the disappearance of old goods. As a result, measurement errors are introduced into the CPI. In this paper, I summarize the problems pertaining to measurement errors inherent in the Japanese CPI, and provide some quantitative assessment. Based on currently available information, I place the point estimate for overall bias in the CPI at about 0.90 percentage point per year. Although this is the best estimate taking into account all information currently available, it is true that the estimate was based on various, rather bold assumptions. In addition, it should be noted that accuracy of the estimate is not necessarily high due to the lack of existing studies in this field in Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 1999. "Measurement Errors in the Japanese Consumer Price Index," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 69-102, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:17:y:1999:i:3:p:69-102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Parkhomenko, Alexander & Redkina, Anastasia & Maslivets, Olga, 2007. "Estimating hedonic price indexes for personal computers in russia: Case of Yekaterinburg," MPRA Paper 3135, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. HIGA, Kazuhito & 比嘉, 一仁, 2014. "Estimating Upward Bias of Japanese Consumer Price Index Using Engel's Law," Discussion Papers 2014-21, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2007. "Defining Price Stability in Japan: A View from America," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(S1), pages 169-206, December.
    5. Masahiro Higo & Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2022. "Was Inflation Observed under the First Wave of the COVID-19 Spread in Japan? Scanner Data Evidence for Retailers in Tokyo," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2022-013, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    6. Maki, Atsushi, 2005. "The statistical price index as an approximation of the constant-utility price index: an empirical analysis using Japanese data sets," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 37-50, March.
    7. Kozo Ueda, 2001. "Costs of Inflation in Japan: Tax and Resource Allocation," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    8. Kenn Ariga & Kenji Matsui, 2003. "Mismeasurement of the CPI," NBER Chapters, in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 89-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Hiroyuki Imai, 2020. "Was the Balassa–Samuelson Effect Small? Uncaptured Quality Improvements and Japan’s Real Exchange Rate Appreciation, 1956–1970," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(4), pages 632-660, December.
    10. Abe, Naohito & Moriguchi, Chiaki & Inakura, Noriko, 2014. "The Impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on Commodity Prices: New Evidence from High-Frequency Scanner Data," Research Center for Price Dynamics Working Paper Series 12, Research Center for Price Dynamics, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Etsuro Shioji & Taisuke Uchino, 2011. "Pass-Through of Oil Prices to Japanese Domestic Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, pages 155-189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "How should central banks define price stability?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 08, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Daniel Leigh, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Dangers of Deflation:Lessons from Japan," Economics Working Paper Archive 511, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    14. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2021. "Lower-Level Substitution Bias in the Japanese Consumer Price Index: Evidence from Government Micro Data," Discussion Paper Series 722, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    15. Abe, Naohito & Tonogi, Akiyuki, 2010. "Micro and macro price dynamics in daily data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 716-728, September.
    16. Emmanuel De Veirman, 2009. "What Makes the Output–Inflation Trade‐Off Change? The Absence of Accelerating Deflation in Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1117-1140, September.
    17. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "Is There a Desirable Rate of Inflation? A Theoretical and Empirical Survey," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(2), pages 49-83, May.
    18. Higo, Masahiro & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2023. "Consumer price measurement under the first wave of the COVID-19 spread in Japan: Scanner data evidence for retailers in Tokyo," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Mahmood Khalid & Zahid Asghar, 2010. "Working to Improve Price Indices Development in Pakistan," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22831, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    20. Naohito Abe & Kyosuke Shiotani, 2014. "Who Faces Higher Prices? An Empirical Analysis Based on Japanese Homescan Data," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 94-115, January.
    21. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2018. "The boundaries of central bank independence: Lessons from unconventional times," IMFS Working Paper Series 124, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    22. Kazuhito Higa, 2013. "Estimating Upward Bias in the Japanese CPI Using Engel's Law," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-295, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    23. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2014. "Comment on “Product Downsizing and Hidden Price Increases: Evidence from Japan's Deflationary Period”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 90-91, January.
    24. Shimasawa, Manabu & Sadahiro, Akira, 2009. "Policy reform and optimal inflation rate for Japan in computable OLG economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 379-384, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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