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Inflation in developing Asia

Author

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  • Jongwanich, Juthathip
  • Park, Donghyun

Abstract

Inflation emerged as the single biggest macroeconomic challenge confronting developing Asia during 2007-2008, although inflationary pressures have abated since the second half of 2008 due to the global crisis. This paper empirically examines the relative importance of different sources of inflation in developing Asia. In particular, it tests the widely held view that the region's inflationary surge during 2007-2008 was primarily the result of external price factors such as oil and food shocks. Our central empirical result is that, contrary to popular misconception, Asia's inflation is largely homegrown and has arisen due to excess aggregate demand and inflationary expectations, rather than external price shocks. This suggests monetary policy will remain a powerful tool in fighting inflation in Asia, as well as in defusing the risks of deflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jongwanich, Juthathip & Park, Donghyun, 2009. "Inflation in developing Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 507-518, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:20:y:2009:i:5:p:507-518
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    3. Nombulelo Braiton, 2008. "Pass-Through of External Shocks to Inflation in Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 08/78, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Laurence Ball, 2000. "Near-rationality and inflation in two monetary regimes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Ashok Bhundia, 2002. "An Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 02/165, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    2. Fujii, Tomoki, 2013. "Impact of food inflation on poverty in the Philippines," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 13-27.
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping & Chang, Chi-Hung, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between industry returns and stock market returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 119-144.
    4. Marga Peeters & Ronald Albers, 2013. "Food Prices, Government Subsidies and Fiscal Balances in South Mediterranean Countries," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 31(3), pages 273-290, May.
    5. Vu, Tuan Khai & Nakata, Hayato, 2014. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in ASEAN Countries: Analysis Using a VAR with Block Exogeneity," Discussion Paper Series 619, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. repec:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:4:p:407-425 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Adam, P. & Rianse, U. & Harafah, Ĺ. M. & Cahyono, E. & Rafiy, M., 2016. "A Model of the Dynamics of the Effect of World Crude Oil Price and World Rice Price on Indonesia’s Inflation Rate," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(1), March.
    8. Wu, Libo & Li, Jing & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2013. "Inflationary effect of oil-price shocks in an imperfect market: A partial transmission input–output analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 354-369.
    9. Logan Rangasamy, 2011. "Food Inflation In South Africa: Some Implications For Economic Policy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(2), pages 184-201, June.
    10. Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2008. "Commodity Prices and Monetary Policy in Emerging East Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 23, Asian Development Bank.
    11. Osorio, Carolina & Unsal, D. Filiz, 2013. "Inflation dynamics in Asia: Causes, changes, and spillovers from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 26-40.
    12. Khatun, Fahmida & Ahamad, Mazbahul G., 2012. "Investigating the determinants of inflationary trends in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds F-Test Approach," MPRA Paper 42572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Etsuro Shioji & Taisuke Uchino, 2011. "Pass-Through of Oil Prices to Japanese Domestic Prices," NBER Chapters,in: Commodity Prices and Markets, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 20, pages 155-189 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    15. repec:pra:mprapa:37705 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. World Bank Group, 2015. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 : Having Fiscal Space and Using It," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 20758.
    17. Al-Shawarby, Sherine & Selim, Hoda, 2012. "Are international food price spikes the source of Egypt's high inflation ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6177, The World Bank.
    18. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2013. "Local Inflation: Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201303, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    19. Sungbae An & Heedon Kang, 2011. "Oil Shocks in a DSGE Model for the Korean Economy," NBER Chapters,in: Commodity Prices and Markets, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 20, pages 295-321 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. repec:eee:asieco:v:54:y:2018:i:c:p:1-21 is not listed on IDEAS

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