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The Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japan:A Re-evaluation Based on Time-Varying Parameter VARs

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  • Etsuro Shioji

    (Professor, Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University)

Abstract

This paper re-examines the evolution over time of influences of the Japanese exchange rate on its exports, imports, and domestic prices. By employing the time varying parameter VAR (vector autoregression) method, this study reveals the timings of the pass-through rates changed and by how much. The sample period is January 1980 through January 2010. It shows that the pass-through rates on both import and domestic prices trended down throughout much the sample period. While the pass-through rate on domestic prices experienced a sharp decline during the 1980s and continued to decline gradually afterwards, the rate on import prices went through the second sharp decline in the latter half of the 1990s. In contrast, the pass-through rate on export prices increased, especially during the 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Etsuro Shioji, 2012. "The Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japan:A Re-evaluation Based on Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 8(1), pages 67-92, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mof:journl:ppr015d
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    File URL: http://warp.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/10248500/www.mof.go.jp/english/pri/publication/pp_review/ppr015/ppr015d.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Charl Jooste & Yaseen Jhaveri, 2014. "The Determinants of Time-Varying Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(4), pages 603-615, December.
    3. Kiyotaka Sato, 2014. "Comment on “A Pass-Through Revival”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 139-140, January.
    4. Robert DEKLE & KAWAKAMI Atsushi & KIYOTAKI Nobuhiro & MIYAGAWA Tsutomu, 2015. "Product Dynamics and Aggregate Shocks: Evidence from Japanese product and firm level data," Discussion papers 15137, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2017. "Not All Exchange Rate Movements Are Alike : Exchange Rate Persistence and Pass-Through to Consumer Prices," Discussion paper series. A 311, Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration, Hokkaido University.
    6. Tomoyuki Yagi & Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Masato Takahashi & Kotone Yamada & Hiroshi Kawata, 2022. "Pass-Through of Cost-Push Pressures to Consumer Prices," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-17, Bank of Japan.
    7. Etsuro Shioji, 2014. "A Pass-Through Revival," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 120-138, January.
    8. YOSHIDA Yushi & Weiyang ZHAI & SASAKI Yuri & Siyu ZHANG, 2022. "Exchange Rate Pass-through Under the Unconventional Monetary Policy Regime," Discussion papers 22020, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Robert Dekle & Atsushi Kawakami & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Tsutomu Miyagawa, 2015. "Product Dynamics and Aggregate Shocks: Evidence from Japanese Product and Firm Level Data," Working Papers 2015-3, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    10. Shioji, Etsuro, 2015. "Time varying pass-through: Will the yen depreciation help Japan hit the inflation target?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 43-58.
    11. Shioji, Etsuro, 2021. "Pass-through of oil supply shocks to domestic gasoline prices: evidence from daily data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    12. SASAKI Yuri & YOSHIDA Yushi & Piotr Kansho OTSUBO, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through on Japanese prices: Import price, producer price, and core CPI," Discussion papers 19078, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. David Finck & Peter Tillmann, 2019. "Price-setting Behavior and Inflation Dynamics in SEACEN Member Economies and Their Implications for Inflation," Research Studies, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number rp104.
    14. Sasaki, Yuri & Yoshida, Yushi & Otsubo, Piotr Kansho, 2022. "Exchange rate pass-through to Japanese prices: Import prices, producer prices, and the core CPI," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    15. Kiyotaka Sato & Junko Shimizu & Nagendra Shrestha & Shajuan Zhang, 2013. "Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates and Export Price Competitiveness: The Cases of Japan, China, and Korea," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 298-321, December.
    16. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by Time-Varying FAVAR," Working Papers hal-01282811, HAL.
    17. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by time-varying FAVAR," Post-Print hal-03714934, HAL.
    18. Jesus Cuauhtemoc Tellez Gaytan & Aqila Rafiuddin & Gyanendra Singh Sisodia & Gouher Ahmed & CH Paramaiah, 2023. "Pass-through Effects of Oil Prices on LATAM Emerging Stocks before and during COVID-19: An Evidence from a Wavelet -VAR Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 529-543, January.
    19. Roberto Calero & Gabriel Rodríguez & Rodrigo Salcedo Cisneros, 2022. "Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Throught into Prices in Peru: An Empirical Application Using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-510, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    20. Farhan AHMED & Muhammad OWAIS & Sandhya KUMARI & Rohit RAJJANI, 2018. "Exchange rate pass-through to macroeconomic indicators using Vector Auto Regression: Empirical evidence from Pakistan," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(616), A), pages 61-76, Autumn.
    21. Etsuro Shioji, 2015. "Time varying pass-through: Will the yen depreciation help Japan hit the inflation," Working Papers e092, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.

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