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The Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japan:A Re-evaluation Based on Time-Varying Parameter VARs


  • Etsuro Shioji

    (Professor, Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University)


This paper re-examines the evolution over time of influences of the Japanese exchange rate on its exports, imports, and domestic prices. By employing the time varying parameter VAR (vector autoregression) method, this study reveals the timings of the pass-through rates changed and by how much. The sample period is January 1980 through January 2010. It shows that the pass-through rates on both import and domestic prices trended down throughout much the sample period. While the pass-through rate on domestic prices experienced a sharp decline during the 1980s and continued to decline gradually afterwards, the rate on import prices went through the second sharp decline in the latter half of the 1990s. In contrast, the pass-through rate on export prices increased, especially during the 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Etsuro Shioji, 2012. "The Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japan:A Re-evaluation Based on Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 8(1), pages 67-92, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:mof:journl:ppr015d

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. SHIOJI Etsuro & VU Tuan Khai & TAKEUCHI Hiroko, 2007. "Macroeconomic Implications of Declines in Nominal Exchange Rate Pass-through Rates (Japanese)," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 07024, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Rebecca Hellerstein & Deirdre Daly & Christina Marsh, 2006. "Have U.S. import prices become less responsive to changes in the dollar?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Sep).
    3. Toshitaka Sekine, 2006. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 202, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    5. Mario Marazzi & Nathan Sheets & Robert J. Vigfusson & Jon Faust & Joseph E. Gagnon & Jaime R. Marquez & Robert F. Martin & Trevor A. Reeve & John H. Rogers, 2005. "Exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices: some new evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 833, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Etsuro Shioji & Taisuke Uchino, 2011. "Pass-Through of Oil Prices to Japanese Domestic Prices," NBER Chapters,in: Commodity Prices and Markets, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 20, pages 155-189 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Otani, Akira & Shiratsuka, Shigenori & Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2003. "The Decline in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence from Japanese Import Prices," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 53-81, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yanamandra, Venkataramana, 2015. "Exchange rate changes and inflation in India: What is the extent of exchange rate pass-through to imports?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 57-68.
    2. Charl Jooste & Yaseen Jhaveri, 2014. "The Determinants of Time-Varying Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(4), pages 603-615, December.
    3. Kiyotaka Sato, 2014. "Comment on “A Pass-Through Revival”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 139-140, January.
    4. Robert DEKLE & KAWAKAMI Atsushi & KIYOTAKI Nobuhiro & MIYAGAWA Tsutomu, 2015. "Product Dynamics and Aggregate Shocks: Evidence from Japanese product and firm level data," Discussion papers 15137, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Etsuro Shioji, 2014. "A Pass-Through Revival," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 120-138, January.
    6. Shioji, Etsuro, 2015. "Time varying pass-through: Will the yen depreciation help Japan hit the inflation target?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 43-58.
    7. Kiyotaka Sato & Junko Shimizu & Nagendra Shrestha & Shajuan Zhang, 2013. "Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates and Export Price Competitiveness: The Cases of Japan, China, and Korea," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 298-321, December.
    8. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by Time-Varying FAVAR," Working Papers hal-01282811, HAL.

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