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A Pass-Through Revival

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  • Etsuro Shioji

Abstract

type="main"> It has been found that the pass-through of the exchange rate and import prices to domestic prices has weakened over time. The most recent research, however, shows that this trend may have been reversed. Recent studies have applied various time series methods to the Japanese data, and estimated responses of domestic prices to the exchange rate and import prices in different time periods. Those studies have found signs that pass-through has made an impressive comeback since the early 2000s. This paper reviews the most recent evidence and discusses its policy implications. I argue that the exchange rate has likely regained its status as an important transmission mechanism of monetary policy to domestic prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Etsuro Shioji, 2014. "A Pass-Through Revival," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 120-138, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:9:y:2014:i:1:p:120-138
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    1. SHIOJI Etsuro & VU Tuan Khai & TAKEUCHI Hiroko, 2007. "Macroeconomic Implications of Declines in Nominal Exchange Rate Pass-through Rates (Japanese)," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 07024, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
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    6. Toshitaka Sekine, 2006. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 202, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    8. Takatoshi Ito & Kiyotaka Sato, 2008. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1407-1438, October.
    9. Yoshida, Yushi, 2010. "New evidence for exchange rate pass-through: Disaggregated trade data from local ports," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-12, January.
    10. Etsuro Shioji, 2012. "The Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japan:A Re-evaluation Based on Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 8(1), pages 67-92, June.
    11. Sachiko Kuroda & Isamu Yamamoto, 2014. "Is Downward Wage Flexibility the Primary Factor of Japan's Prolonged Deflation?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 143-158, January.
    12. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    13. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
    14. Linda S. Goldberg & José Manuel Campa, 2010. "The Sensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates: Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs, and Trade Exposure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 392-407, May.
    15. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Japan's Persistent Deflation and Monetary Policy: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Kiyotaka Sato, 2014. "Comment on “A Pass-Through Revival”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 139-140, January.
    3. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2017. "Not All Exchange Rate Movements Are Alike : Exchange Rate Persistence and Pass-Through to Consumer Prices," Discussion paper series. A 311, Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration, Hokkaido University.
    4. Yushi Yoshida, 2014. "Comment on “A Pass-Through Revival”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 141-142, January.
    5. Tomoyuki Yagi & Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Masato Takahashi & Kotone Yamada & Hiroshi Kawata, 2022. "Pass-Through of Cost-Push Pressures to Consumer Prices," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-17, Bank of Japan.
    6. Shioji, Etsuro, 2015. "Time varying pass-through: Will the yen depreciation help Japan hit the inflation target?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 43-58.
    7. Kenji Nishizaki & Toshitaka Sekine & Yoichi Ueno, 2014. "Chronic Deflation in Japan," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 20-39, January.
    8. Shioji, Etsuro, 2021. "Pass-through of oil supply shocks to domestic gasoline prices: evidence from daily data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    9. SASAKI Yuri & YOSHIDA Yushi & Piotr Kansho OTSUBO, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through on Japanese prices: Import price, producer price, and core CPI," Discussion papers 19078, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Sasaki, Yuri & Yoshida, Yushi & Otsubo, Piotr Kansho, 2022. "Exchange rate pass-through to Japanese prices: Import prices, producer prices, and the core CPI," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    11. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by Time-Varying FAVAR," Working Papers hal-01282811, HAL.
    12. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by time-varying FAVAR," Post-Print hal-03714934, HAL.
    13. Roberto Calero & Gabriel Rodríguez & Rodrigo Salcedo Cisneros, 2022. "Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Throught into Prices in Peru: An Empirical Application Using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-510, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    14. Toshitaka Sekine, 2014. "Comments on Raphael Auer and Aaron Mehrotra's paper," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 91-95, Bank for International Settlements.

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