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Time varying pass-through: Will the yen depreciation help Japan hit the inflation target?

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  • Shioji, Etsuro

Abstract

This paper argues that the exchange rate could be a powerful transmission channel of the effects of ongoing “unconventional” monetary policies in Japan. It is shown that exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices, once considered near-extinct, has come back strong in recent years. This is especially true for those items that households purchase frequently. Evidence based on VARs as well as TVP-VARs indicates that a 25% depreciation of the yen would produce a 2% increase in the prices of those items. This could have an additional benefit of raising the public’s expectation about future inflation, as their beliefs are often said to be influenced by their daily observations about prices of those items that they buy frequently.

Suggested Citation

  • Shioji, Etsuro, 2015. "Time varying pass-through: Will the yen depreciation help Japan hit the inflation target?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 43-58.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:37:y:2015:i:c:p:43-58
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2015.06.001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 2015. "Abenomics: Why was it so successful in changing market expectations?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-20.
    2. Abe, Naohito & Inakura, Noriko & Tonogi, Akiyuki, 2017. "Effects of the Entry and Exit of Products on Price Indexes," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP17-2, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Tsutomu Doita, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and its External Effects: Evidence from Japan's Exports," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(1), pages 59-79, March.
    4. repec:eee:jjieco:v:45:y:2017:i:c:p:13-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dahem, Ahlem & Skander, Slim & Fatma, Siala Guermazi, 2017. "Time Varying VAR Analysis for Disaggregated Exchange Rate Pass-through in Tunisia," MPRA Paper 79759, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    6. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 2017. "Spillover Effects of Japan’s Quantitative and Qualitative Easing on East Asian Economies," ADBI Working Papers 631, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by Time-Varying FAVAR," Working Papers hal-01282811, HAL.
    8. Huong Le Thu HOANG & SATO Kiyotaka, 2016. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Production Chains: Application of input-output analysis," Discussion papers 16034, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00520 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:reveco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:245-257 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Pass-through; Expected inflation; CPI by purchase frequency class; Time series analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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