An Equilibrium Foundation of the Soros Chart
The most prominent characteristic of the Japanese yen/U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate in the post-Plaza Accord era is near random-walk behavior sharing a common stochastic trend with the two-country monetary base differential augmented with excess reserves. In this paper, we develop a simple two-country incomplete-market model equipped with domestic reserve markets to structurally investigate this anecdotal evidence known as the Soros chart. In this model, we theoretically verify that a market discount factor close to one generates near random-walk behavior of an equilibrium nominal exchange rate in accordance with a permanent component of the augmented monetary base differential as an economic fundamental. Results of a Bayesian posterior simulation with post-Plaza Accord data of Japan and the United States plausibly support our model as a data generating process of the Japanese yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate. The model identifies the two-country differential in money demand shocks as the main generator of the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar under the Abenomics. We discuss data evidence that the identified money demand shocks are tightly correlated with longer-term interest rate differentials between the two countries.
|Length:||, 23,  p.|
|Date of creation:||27 Mar 2015|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: +81-42-580-8000|
Web page: http://www.econ.hit-u.ac.jp/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005.
"Exchange Rates and Fundamentals,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
- Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier.
- Takashi Kano, 2013.
"Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Closing a Two-country Model,"
CAMA Working Papers
2013-62, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Takashi Kano, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals:Closing a Two-country Model," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 011, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
- Kano, Takashi, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Closing a Two-country Model," Discussion Papers 2013-07, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
- Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993.
"Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
- David K. Backus & Gregor W. Smith, 1993. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Economies with Non-Traded Goods," Working Papers 1252, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 2008.
"Exchange rates and fundamentals: a generalization,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
2008-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 2008. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: a generalization," International Finance Discussion Papers 948, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
- John F. Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Balke, Nathan S. & Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The contribution of economic fundamentals to movements in exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-16.
- Lucio Sarno & Elvira Sojli, 2009. "The Feeble Link between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Can We Blame the Discount Factor?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 437-442, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)